The law of numbers is catching up with us

Jun 04, 2026 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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(Kaieteur News) – Every day you pick up the newspaper and you are greeted by another tragedy on our roads. It has become so routine that we scarcely have time to absorb one horrific accident before another takes its place.

Just two days ago, three persons lost their lives in a devastating road accident. Before that, there were others. And before those, more still.

The question is often asked: why are road fatalities increasing? The answer usually given is reckless driving.

And there is no doubt that reckless use of our roadways is a major factor. Speeding, dangerous overtaking, drunk driving, and a general disregard for traffic laws have all contributed to the alarming number of accidents and deaths. But focusing only on enforcement is addressing only half of the problem.

The other half is mathematics. Specifically, it is the law of numbers and probability.

Imagine a roadway designed for 5,000 vehicles per day. Today, that same roadway may be accommodating 20,000 or 30,000 vehicles daily. The country’s road network has not increased correspondingly with the growth of vehicular traffic.

The more vehicles you place in a confined space, the greater the probability that they will come into conflict with one another. This is not politics. It is mathematics.

If one vehicle is travelling on a road, the probability of a collision is virtually zero. If ten vehicles are using the same road, the probability increases. If one hundred vehicles are using it, it increases further. If thousands of vehicles are competing for the same limited road space every day, the opportunities for mistakes, conflicts, and accidents increase exponentially.

Even if every driver became slightly more cautious tomorrow, the sheer volume of traffic would still generate a higher likelihood of collisions. In other words, our road safety problem is not only a problem of reckless driving. It is also a problem of too many vehicles occupying too little number of roads.

Yet policymakers rarely discuss this aspect of the issue. Why?

Because addressing it requires difficult conversations about slowing down economic activity, or at least managing it differently. Nobody wants to be accused of putting the brakes on commerce and growth.

But perhaps it is time we remembered that societies have confronted similar challenges before. In the early twentieth century, workers routinely endured working days of twelve to sixteen hours. Workers had little time for family life, education, recreation, or religious observance.

Religious groups, labour activists, and social reformers recognised this. They fought for fixed working hours and limits on commercial activity. Businesses were required to close at certain times. Sunday became, for many, a day of rest.

These reforms were designed primarily to protect workers from exploitation. But they had another effect. They reduced activity on the roads.

By four o clock in the afternoon, many commercial districts had begun to wind down. Saturday was half day for businesses. And most markets closed half day on Wednesdays. On Sundays, roads were quieter because shops were closed and people remained closer to home. Fewer vehicles on the roads meant fewer opportunities for accidents.

Today, many of those protections still exist on the law books, but enforcement has become increasingly lax. Businesses operate well into Saturday evenings. Commercial activity continues throughout Sunday.  Some workers are often expected to work extended hours, sometimes without receiving the overtime compensation to which they are legally entitled. The result is that traffic volumes remain high almost every day of the week.

Perhaps it is time to revisit some of these questions. Not because we wish to turn back the clock, but because we need to think seriously about how to reduce the number of vehicles competing for limited road space.

The solution is not to shut down the economy. Rather, it is to organise it more intelligently.

Enforcing reasonable opening and closing hours for businesses would help. Protecting workers’ rights to rest and family time would help. Encouraging staggered working hours would help. Public servants, except the essential services like the hospitals, can do the same amount of work in a four-day work week.

Most importantly, we need alternatives to private vehicle use. School buses, for example, could significantly reduce the number of vehicles on our roads during peak periods. Every parent who does not have to drive a child to school is one less vehicle contributing to congestion.

Likewise, serious investment in mass transportation should be on the national agenda. There has been talk about light rail systems, although questions remain about where such infrastructure could realistically be accommodated. Ideally, these considerations should have been integrated into transportation planning long before many of our roads were designed. But even now, it is not too late to begin thinking differently.

The uncomfortable truth is that we cannot continue increasing the number of vehicles indefinitely without expecting consequences. The laws of probability do not wait on anyone. They simply operate.

And right now, they are operating against us.

If we are serious about reducing road fatalities, then we must address not only reckless driving but also the sheer volume of traffic on our roads. Sometimes the safest thing a society can do is not to speed up, but to slow down, not on our roads but in the way we live.

Perhaps that is the lesson Guyana needs to learn before tomorrow’s newspaper brings news of yet another tragedy.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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• accidents, Peeping Tom, road accidents, speeding

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