US$2.8B to flow into oil account this year

Feb 02, 2026 News

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…Guyana to receive 40M barrels while Exxon gets 269M

Kaieteur News – Guyana is expected to receive about US$2.8B in oil revenue in 2026, as oil prices continue to suffer further declines.

Senior Minister in the Office of the President, with responsibility for Finance, Dr. Ashni Singh recently informed the National Assembly that the country is poised to receive 40 million barrels of a staggering 309 million barrels to be produced this year in the Stabroek Block. This means that Exxon will be flushed with a massive 269 million barrels of sweet light crude, produced offshore Guyana.

The finance minister was at the time presenting the national budget when he highlighted the expected revenue flow from the sector.

He explained, “government is expected to earn approximately US$2.4 billion in profit oil and US$375.3 million in royalties. In addition, a signing bonus of US$17 million will be deposited for the new PSA signed for exploration activities in Block S7.”

Dr. Singh noted that Guyana’s petroleum production will continue to be driven by the four Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels (FPSOs) in operation- Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, Prosperity and One Guyana.

Furthermore, he pointed out that the average price of crude oil is expected to further decline this year by 15.2 per cent to US$59 per barrel. Dr. Singh explained that this was as a result of “the expectation of continued deceleration in demand growth and expanding global supply.”

Notably, in 2025 oil prices recorded a decline, with crude oil prices averaging US$69 per barrel, 14.5 per cent below the 2024 average of US$80.7 per barrel.

As a result of the decline in oil price last year, Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund (NRF) or the oil account saw a reduction in revenue flow, although the country’s production capacity increased. According to the 2026 Budget, Guyana received a total of US$2.4 billion last year. The country in 2025 recorded 260 million barrels of oil.

Meanwhile, in 2024, Guyana produced an average 225.4 million barrels of crude oil and earned US$2.6 billion according to Budget 2025.

ExxonMobil, the operator of the Stabroek Block has already received regulatory approvals for seven deep-water projects. To date it has commenced production at four developments, with preparations ongoing to startup the three other projects over the next few years.

The fifth project, Uaru was expected to come online in 2026, according to the company, while the sixth project, Whiptail, was pegged for startup in 2027 and the eight- Hammerhead- in 2029. Consequently, Guyana’s daily production capacity is expected to be around 1.7 million barrels daily by 2029. In the meantime, the company is seeking the blessings of government for an eight project to develop the resources at the Longtail discovery.

Despite producing more oil however, critics fear that the country will hardly reap any benefits from the sector as crude oil prices continue to decline.

Guyana could have already been receiving multibillion US-dollar profits annually if government had ring-fenced the projects in the Stabroek Block. This provision would have prevented Exxon from using revenue generated to cover the expense of other projects. Ring-fencing would ensure the country benefit from 50 per cent of the revenue generated at each project, after expenses are met.

In accordance with the 2016 Production Sharing Agreement (PSA), ExxonMobil is allowed to take 75 per cent of the oil produced every month to cover costs; it also enjoys a 12.5 per cent profit share. Meanwhile, Guyana receives a meagre 12.5 per cent of profits and two per cent of gross production as royalty.

Gov’t ignores

Kaieteur News previously reported that in three separate reports dated 2017, 2018 and 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) urged Guyana to ring-fence its oil projects. In one of the reports, the IMF stated: “This asymmetrical treatment of profit and cost oil will benefit the contractor at the expense of delaying government revenue.”

Meanwhile, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), along with another international expert, Chatham House and the World Bank called on Guyana to include a ring-fencing provision for each project. Director of Financial Analysis for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), Tom Sanzillo painted a more graphic picture in one his reports on Guyana.

He said, “The lack of contract protections means that every time Guyana announces it has received more revenue, it is actually being shortchanged…the country may never see the promised annual revenues in the billions of dollars.”

The government of Guyana however made it clear on several occasions that it does not intend to implement this provision in the Stabroek Block. It said it would receive “massive” revenue in the future after the country pays off Exxon for its investments.

 

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• barrels, Exxon, NRF, oil price, revenue, ring-fence

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