Latest update March 26th, 2026 12:30 AM
Liza One & Two on track to dry up in three years
…189M barrels remaining in Liza 1, 266M in Liza 2
Kaieteur News – The blistering extraction rates in the Stabroek Block led by American oil giant, ExxonMobil have slashed the projected lifespan of Liza One and the Liza Two developments. What should have been a 20-year project life for each development has been reduced in half as the oil remaining will only last for another three years’ time.
Natural Resources Minister, Vickram Bharrat
Data available on the Ministry of Natural Resources website indicates that in 2025 Liza One produced an average 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) or 51.1M barrels during the year. Further, based on previous reports of the remaining resources in early 2025, it can be deduced that only about 188,940,000 barrels remain at Liza One. At current production levels, the life of that project could come to an end in just over three years. The Liza One project, which commenced oil production in December 2019, has a reserve of 452 million barrels of oil (MBO).
Similarly, the Data Centre on the ministry’s website shows that about 250,000 bpd was produced at Liza Two in 2025 or a total of 91,250,000 barrels during the year. At current production levels, the 255,750,000 barrels remaining could be depleted in a little over two years.
The Liza Two project has a reserve of about 570 MBO. That project commenced production in February 2022. ExxonMobil in consultation with the government has increased oil production at the two developments which have resulted in the reduced project life.
Despite the ramp up, Guyana has not benefitted from larger revenues in the absence of a ring-fencing provision- this since Exxon deducts 75% of monthly production to meet its expenses. Notably, oil prices over the past few years surged in light of global developments including the Russia-Ukraine war. The price per barrel hovered around US$100 in 2022, the highest in the last five years. Since then, brent crude oil prices have been sliding, with the current rate now at US$62 a barrel.
The recent move by President Donald Trump to abduct Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro and takeover the country’s oil resources could see the price dropping further to about US$50 per barrel according to international media reports. With less oil to be produced by Guyana, given the shortened lifespan of Liza One and Liza Two, the country could expect a significant decline in revenue flow. Moreover, new projects to come online will be subjected to the lower oil prices which can affect the nation’s development agenda.
Ring-fencing and Gov’t
Ring-fencing’ simply means that each project would pay for itself. Since 2023, Guyana could have been enjoying higher profits from the first three oil projects had ring-fencing been implemented.
Instead, Exxon has been utilising resources that should be in Guyana’s purse to finance the Stabroek Block activities. In October 2023, when Brent crude prices averaged US$91, Vice President and chief policy maker for the sector, Bharrat Jagdeo explained that Guyana is foregoing revenue now to gain massive profits in the future.
He said, “We admitted that we are foregoing revenue now in exchange for massive future income because it’s going into new projects that will increase production, and so even with the same share of the 50/50, plus the two percent royalty that the future income, because of the bigger scale will be massive in Guyana’s case and we are deliberately foregoing that in this period for that purpose and then trying to grab this bone now could cause you to lose all the bones, the bigger bones too in the future.”
The current state of affairs however casts doubt on his projection of “massive” future revenues.
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