Where are the technocrats?

Feb 23, 2023 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Kaieteur News – In January of this year, President Irfaan Ali made a hectic tour of India. Discussions were held with both officials of the Government of India and with Indian private sector entities during which agreements for future collaboration were reportedly signed.

India has shown an interest in buying Guyana’s oil. It was agreed that there will be follow-up discussions and that Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo would be part of those discussions.  This episode is a good example of poor planning and execution. Diplomats are supposed to be in the business of diplomacy; they act on behalf of politicians. Before a President makes a major visit to a country, a great deal of diplomatic legwork has to take place. Officials from both sides usually meet in preparatory meetings and produce draft agreements. At the end of those negotiations, there will be draft agreements.

When the President or Prime Minister meets with his foreign counterpart, if there are any issues to be ironed out, the two leaders will do so. But the groundwork for the signing of agreements would have already done. Another way of doing business is for there to be a visit and issues broached and discussed. The two sides will then agree to either form some team to follow-through on the discussions which were held. Either way, the follow through is done by diplomats and technicians in the various sectors. The President thus signs and agreement and the follow-through for bringing these agreements into operation is left to diplomats and technical personnel. It sends the wrong signal when after a President makes a visit, another high-level political figure has to follow-through.

It however seems that Guyana is going back to the method of the past which has slowed bilateral cooperation. The President, a political figure, went to India and held wide-ranging discussions. One would have expected that the technicians would have then followed through to ensure the realisation of these agreements. But sadly it now looks as if the Vice President, a political figure, has to go to do what should be done by diplomats and technicians. No country can progress in this way. It is not clear who are the technical personnel that are accompanying the Vice President. But during his Press Conference on his return to Guyana from India, last month, the President shared the head table with a number of private sector officials. The President indicated wide-ranging discussions and partnerships. So why does the Vice President have to go to follow up and not senior public servants and members of the private sector?

India wants to buy Guyana’s share of oil. Guyana gets its 12.5% profit share in the form of oil and it has to sell that oil. India is willing to take the oil and there is no reason why India should not be buying our oil given the strength of relations between Guyana and India and that country’s demonstrated support for Guyana’s development. But Trinidad has long been knocking at the door. Guyana is today believed to be producing some 400,000 barrels of oil per day, up from 120,000 or less barrels when production first started. By 2027 Guyana will be producing 1.2 billion barrels of oil per day. Trinidad has a refinery which can probably handle as much as 140,000 barrels per day. With production in Guyana expected to triple over the next five years, Guyana ought to have been in a stronger position to sell oil to the twin-island Republic.

But the fact is that Guyana signed such a poor deal with the oil companies that even with production likely to triple within the next five years, Guyana will not be able to sell Trinidad what it requires. In any event PETROTRIN refinery has been closed for five years and it will take some time and investment to be put back in operation. Guyana is planning also to build a modular refinery to process about 30,000 barrels per day. This would mean a possible shortfall in supplies to sell to Trinidad and none available to sell to India. It is too much of a gamble. As such Guyana has little option but to sell its oil in a guaranteed market and its best choice at this time will be India. These are all technical matters which should have been handled by technocrats. There was therefore no need to send the Vice President to India. It suggests strongly that the same style of governance practiced prior to 2015 has returned.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of this newspaper and its affiliates.)

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• Bharrat Jagdeo, India, Peeping Tom, President Irfaan Ali, technocrats, Vice President

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