DO NOT UNDERRATE THE AFC

Jul 12, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

The Alliance for Change (AFC) feels that its chances of winning the election should not be underrated. It feels that it has a good chance of gaining the presidency.
In many respects, the AFC’s position is understandable. No political party, especially one which has had such a phenomenal success in its first outing at the polls, should ever approach an election with anything other than winning.
In the case of the elections in Guyana, the AFC does not need 50 per cent to win an election. A thirty five percent take of the total votes cast could give the AFC the presidency.
The constitution of Guyana provides that the party with the most votes wins the presidency. Thus even with a minority vote, the AFC can take the presidency. It may have problems passing bills and its Budget through parliament but under the presidential system even a party with a minority in the legislative assembly can do a great deal.
Two other factors theoretically allow the AFC to push for the presidency in this year’s poll. Firstly there is a growing middle class in Guyana and this class is increasingly making demands for representation politically. It is a tide that cannot be held back. Wherever the middle class has emerged, it has demanded its own representation.
While the PPP has and continues to make inroads into the propertied class, including the middle class, the progressive policies of the ruling party has caused to emerge a larger middle class and amongst this class are a number of professionals and business persons who wish to be represented by a middle class party.
The AFC fills that void and there will be thousands or more persons who saw what the AFC did in the 2006 polls who will believe that the AFC should be given more support since it is a new party and one with middle class, professional leadership.
The new, young middle class are tired of the old politics and seeing that the AFC attained five seats at the last elections, they may feel that the AFC this time around can gain nine or ten which would almost certainly hand them the balance of power in the national parliament.
The additional factor that may have led the AFC to go for broke in this year’s elections is the lack of viable alternative.
The PNCR seems to have gone to an unattractive political formula and that fact that its name will for the first time not be on the ballot will cause many of its die-hard supporters to think hard about where there X will go in this year’s election.
There is reportedly some discontent within the party over the whole campaign management and both the AFC and the PPP can capitalize on this discontent. It is already known that the PPP has been able to woo to its side some of the former PNC members who are not pleased with what is taking place within the party and the AFC is trying also to capture some of the professionals within the main opposition in the hope that this will help them to win the elections.
Realistically however, the AFC is not likely to win. The PPP looks too formidable for any party or coalition and this coupled with the strength of the economy and the fact that the PPP is now doling out resources in a mad scramble to win the elections, makes the odds of an AFC victory extremely remote.
At best, the AFC may only be able to hold the balance of power which would be an important achievement for any political party since it can use this position to wrest concessions from the ruling party.
It must however still convince the Guyanese electorate that if it does end up holding the balance of power in Guyana that it would not use this position to wrest concessions for the personal benefit of its leadership, that is, it would not use this advantage for political horse-trading or to promote gridlock and instability, but would instead utilize its swing margin to ensure that there is a more participatory system of decision-making.
However things go, the AFC must not be underrated.

Discover more from Kaieteur News

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Latest News