Guyana ups growth projection to 15.2%

Nov 06, 2025 News

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…after strong mid-year performance
…7 non-oil sectors expand while fisheries, diamond mining see declines

(Kaieteur News) – Guyana’s economy is expanding faster than initially expected, recording a robust 7.5 percent real growth in the first half of 2025 and prompting government to sharply revise its full-year projection upward to 15.2 percent.

According to the long-delayed Mid-Year Report laid in the National Assembly on Monday, the surge was powered not only by continued expansion in the oil and gas industry but also by strong double-digit gains across seven traditional non-oil sectors, signaling what officials describe as growing resilience and diversification in the wider economy.

The report said the 7.5% growth in the economy was fueled by the expansion of the oil and gas sector, complemented by strong performances across the non-oil sector, which grew by 13.8% during the period. Government said, “As we move into the second half of the year, prospects for 2025 remain strongly positive, with a focus on sustaining growth in the non-oil economy while the oil and gas sector continues to ramp up.”

Notably, overall growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised upward with government now projecting 15.2% growth instead of 10.6% for 2025. Additionally, growth in the non-oil sector has also been slightly revised from 13.8% to 13.9%. Consequently, 2025 will be the fifth successive year of expansion in both the overall and non-oil economy.

Sugar

During the first six months of 2025, the sugar growing industry is estimated to have expanded by 136.7 percent when compared with the first half last year. The Guyana Sugar Corporation (GuySuCo) produced 15,954 tonnes of sugar in the first crop of this year, compared with only 6,739 tonnes during the same period in 2024. The report said heavy rainfall, labour shortages and cane quality affected further expansion from occurring.

Meanwhile, government noted that it is still targeting an overall production of approximately 101,000 tonnes of sugar for 2025, with the second crop being traditionally the larger of the two crops.

Rice

Favourable weather conditions resulted in a 13.9% expansion of the rice growing industry in the first half of the year. The Guyana Rice Development Board (GRDB) reported production of 410,194 tonnes of rice equivalent in the first six months of this year, compared with 362,030 tonnes in the first half of 2024. The Mid-Year report states, “On account of favourable weather conditions, the yield achieved for the first crop of 2025 was 6.6 tonnes per hectare, aligned with what was achieved in the first crop of last year.” It added that the production target for 2025 remains 804,000 tonnes of rice, with a growth target of 12.4 percent, buttressed by continued support to farmers and renewed efforts to secure new and more attractive markets.

Crops

According to the Mid-Year Report, the other crops subsector is estimated to have grown by 7.4 percent during the period. There was reportedly increased production of vegetables, coconuts, fruits, root crops, and spices. The document explained that the positive performance is due to favourable weather conditions, expansion in acreage cultivated, and expansion in shade house cultivation. Additionally, growth for this subsector is now projected at 11.9 percent for 2025.

Livestock

All livestock products saw increased output, resulting in an expansion of the subsector, which is estimated to have grown by 11.7% during the first six months of 2025. Growth for the year is now projected at 7.2 percent.

Forestry

It is estimated that the forestry sector expanded by 6.2 percent in the first half of this year. The Mid-Year Report states that at the end of June, 211,807 cubic metres of timber products were produced

The growth target for the sector is maintained at 1.3 percent for 2025.

Bauxite

With production totalling 1.7 million tonnes in the first half of 2025, the bauxite mining subsector recorded a 133.1% growth. The Mid-Year Report explained, “This outcome can be attributed to ramped-up production of metallurgical grade (MAZ) bauxite by the bigger of the two large producers in the sector.”

Without naming the companies, government said the larger firm reported 1,609,403 tonnes of production this year, compared with 145,335 tonnes during the same period last year. Additionally, it noted that the smaller operator produced 118,914 tonnes. Notwithstanding the strong performance in the first half of the year, some challenges persist, including prolonged rainfall, which constrained true potential. The sector is now projected to grow by 65.9 percent, with an overall production target of nearly 4.3 million tonnes for 2025.

Gold

A 10.9% growth was recorded for the gold mining subsector in the first half of 2025. The Mid-Year Report said higher declarations were reported from the single large producer as well as the small- and medium-scale miners.

“At the end of June, gold declarations totalled 208,757 troy ounces, compared with 188,160 troy ounces in the first half of 2024. Declarations from the lone large producer grew to 71,316 troy ounces, and purchases by the Guyana Gold Board to 86,935 troy ounces,” according to the document.

Combined, these offset the decline in declarations from the licensed dealers, which fell from 66,220 troy ounces in the first half of last year, to 50,505 troy ounces at the end of June this year. Notwithstanding, the sector’s growth target for 2025 remains unchanged at 17.2 percent.

Fisheries

The fisheries sector is estimated to have contracted by 1.9% during the first six months of 2025, on account of lower marine shrimp output. The Mid-Year Report states that there was growth in both marine fish production and aquaculture output.

“With respect to marine production, fish output grew by 16.1 percent when compared with the first half of 2024, reaching 11,404 tonnes at the end of June this year. Marine shrimp production, however, fell by 42.4 percent to 5,520 tonnes, on account of lower production of industrial seabob shrimp and prawns, which fell by 87 percent and 58.6 percent, respectively,” the document indicated.

Further, it was explained that the lower-than anticipated production of shrimp was due to low fleet activity, compounded by low catch rates. To this end, it was noted that the outlook for the subsector has been revised, with growth now estimated at 2.1 percent for the year.

Diamond

Similarly, a 22.6% decline was also recorded for diamond output in the first six months of the year. The report shared merely a one-liner on diamonds, omitting information such as the total production for the year compared with the same period last year. It however shared that sand and stone declarations are estimated to have grown by 8.1 percent and 95.5 percent, respectively, while manganese production grew by 31.4 percent to 165,381 tonnes, during the first half of the year.

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• Dr. Ashni Singh, economy, Finance Minister, GDP, Growth, Mid-Year Report, non-oil sector

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