OPEC sees Guyana among countries key to recovery of global oil supply, after COVID

Oct 17, 2020 News

Kaieteur News – The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sees Guyana among five countries that will lead the medium-term recovery of the global oil supply, as the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has cut down travel and other industries heavily reliant on fossil fuels, drastically reducing demand and supply. The fall in supply, the organization said, amounted to 3.3M barrels per day.
In its report 2020 World Oil Outlook – which looks at the industry up to 2045 – the 13-member OPEC stated that it expects meaningful medium term growth (to 2025) in the oil production of Brazil (+1.7M barrels per day), the United States (+1.4M barrels per day), Norway (+0.8M barrels per day), Guyana (+0.7M barrels per day) and Kazakhstan (+0.5M barrels per day).
Guyana is expected to produce 750,000 barrels of oil per day off of ExxonMobil’s development plans in the Stabroek Block alone – the 6.6M acre block currently has more than 8 billion discovered oil-equivalent barrels. Exxon said that its 18 discoveries so far have established potential for at least five Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessels in the block by 2026.
Guyana and Kazakhstan also edge out the other countries in terms of long-term supply growth (beyond 2025), alongside Canada and Qatar. OPEC’s projections show Guyana nearing 1M barrels per day by 2030, then steadily producing 1M barrels per day through to 2045.
Rystad Energy projects that ExxonMobil will be able to place one FPSO vessel offshore Guyana, every year for the next 10 years. In addition to the Stabroek Block, ExxonMobil operates the Canje and Kaieteur Blocks. The two blocks are collectively estimated to hold 7.2 billion oil-equivalent barrels.
Other companies have made few discoveries in other blocks, but have not yet definitively pronounced on whether they will seek to produce.
“Further expansions are likely [for Guyana], given recent discoveries and prolific wells.” OPEC’s report said. “However, until the country has absorbed its new-found oil income politically and economically – and on top of the current uncertain outlook given the COVID-19 pandemic – we are reluctant to project higher growth in the Reference Case.”
Most other non-OPEC countries, it said, will see their output stagnate or decline.

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