TIT-FOR-TAT DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY

Apr 07, 2018 Editorial, Features / Columnists

On March 14, 2018, Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May announced the expulsion of 23 Russian diplomats from Britain after the poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia Skripal. They were poisoned in the English town of Salisbury. May’s announcement came after British authorities revealed that the pair was poisoned by the Russian military nerve agent “Novichok.”
A former Russian military intelligence officer, Sergei Skripal who was jailed in Russia for passing information about Russian agents in various European countries came to Britain in 2010 as part of a spy swap.
Though Britain has expelled several Russian diplomats in recent years, this was the largest expulsion since 1985 when Britain expelled 25 Soviet spies after Oleg Gordievksy, a senior KGB agent, defected to Britain. That incident sparked tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats, which ultimately resulted in the expulsion of 31 Soviet Union agents from Britain. The same number of British diplomats was expelled from the Soviet Union.
The Russian government has denied any involvement in the nerve agent attack on the Skripals who are still in hospital. It has called the expulsions a provocative gesture and a distraction of Britain’s isolation from the European Union (EU). Russia responded by expelling 23 British diplomats from Moscow. The incident sparked a number of Britain’s allies, including 19 European Union (EU) States, the United States, Canada, Australia and six other non-European countries, to expel more than 150 Russian diplomats from their respective countries. The collective expulsion of Russian diplomats from the United States, Canada, the EU and non-European Union states such as Australia is a remarkable show of solidarity with Britain.
It came at a time when the UK-EU relations are extremely tense due to the Brexit negotiations. It is also a significant victory for Prime Minister Theresa May.
The United States surprised the world by going much further than Britain and expelling 60 Russian diplomats it deemed as spies and closed the Russian Consulate in Seattle, Washington. That ended Russian diplomatic representation on the west coast. It was the most forceful action that President Trump has taken against Russia so far.
Trump has not only condemned Russia for the act, but he also viewed it as an outrageous violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention and a breach of international law. Trump’s actions mark a significant toughening and a crucial shift of his administration’s stance towards Russia, though Mr. Trump’s approach to Russia has been curiously lenient, tolerant and unfocused.
It was the largest expulsion of Russian intelligence officers in history by the United States and it represents the biggest concerted blow to Russia’s alleged spy networks in the country since the Cold War.
The expulsions came at a time when relations between the United States and Russia are at an all- time low and amid an ongoing investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. They also follow Russia’s Annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Russia did not hesitate to retaliate against Britain and its allies. In a tit-for-tat diplomatic move, it expelled the same number of diplomats from the United States and the other western countries, thus making it the largest mutual expulsion of diplomats since the Ronald Reagan era.
The U.S., Britain and its allies in the EU have left the door open for additional measures to be taken against Russia. Nonetheless, the key point here is that so far, the response has been limited only to diplomatic action in a tit-for-tat spat between the West and Russia.
But what remains to be seen is whether the West actions will impact business in Russia or in the west.

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