‘Astroturfing, autocracy and development’

May 26, 2025 Letters

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Dear Editor,

Immediately upon Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost’s election as Pope Leo XIV, I humorously sent a note to colleagues suggesting that perhaps he is a close relative of Mr. Mallet-Provost, whose posthumously published story forms the basis of Venezuela’s claim to almost two-thirds of Guyana and that he could perhaps lend Venezuela his help!

Not long after, a video surfaced, purportedly of a speech the new pope made in response to one by Captain Ibrahim Traore, president of Burkina Faso, addressing the Catholic Church’s historical exploitative relationship with imperialism and its political interference in Africa.

As noted a few weeks ago, astroturfing – artificially manufactured political movement – is widespread in the world today, and my first reaction to the video was to conclude that in the context of ‘Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want’ the pope was unlikely to have used his first major speech about Africa in response to someone who rose to the presidency by way of a military coup and has created a political system that is worse than Guyana – what the V-Dem Index describes a ‘closed autocracy’ i.e. an outright dictatorship! But the scope and depth of the pope’s supposed presentation were impressive, leading me to conclude that if the historic data it contains are correct, it may well have come from the Vatican.

A few days later, the Catholic News Agency stated that ‘A 36-minute video purporting to show Pope Leo XIV reading a statement denouncing colonialism and praising Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the 37-year-old leader of Burkina Faso, has garnered nearly a million views on YouTube as of Monday. …. The video is fake and not to be taken seriously. That doesn’t mean Pope Leo will never address the topics raised in the video, such as colonialism and Catholicism in Africa; however, he just hasn’t yet (Catholic News, Artificial Intelligence, Burkina Faso, Pope Leo XIV, Pope Leo, Ibrahim Traoré, deep fakes).

It is widely believed that demographic trends in Africa suggest a potential for it becoming a major global political and economic player in the coming decades, but only if its various countries ‘take advantage of this demographic opportunity by developing appropriate policy frameworks. Good governance, solid macroeconomic management, good trade policy, efficient infrastructure, and effective investments in health and education must all be taken into consideration’ Agenda 2063 is the continent’s strategic plan for attaining this goal (‘Governance Quality and Sustainable Development…in Africa,’ Public Organisation Review, 14/02/2025).

Agenda 2063 aims to deliver on its goal for inclusive and sustainable development and is a concrete manifestation of the pan-African drive for unity, self-determination, freedom, progress and collective prosperity pursued under Pan-Africanism and African Renaissance.   The genesis of Agenda 2063 was the realisation by African leaders that there was a need to refocus and reprioritise Africa’s agenda … to prioritise inclusive social and economic development, continental and regional integration, democratic governance and peace and security amongst other issues aimed at repositioning Africa to becoming a dominant player in the global arena.

As an affirmation of their commitment to support Africa’s new path for attaining inclusive and sustainable economic growth and development, African heads of state and government signed the 50th Anniversary Solemn Declaration during the Golden Jubilee celebrations of the formation of the OAU/AU in May 2013. The declaration marked the re-dedication of Africa towards the attainment of the Pan African Vision of an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens, representing a dynamic force in the international arena and Agenda 2063 is the concrete manifestation of how the continent intends to achieve this vision within a 50 year period from 2013 to 2063’ (https://au.int/en/agenda2063/overview).

President Ibrahim Traore seized power from another military man in 2022 and has become very popular among young people in Africa and beyond. It is said that his ‘messages reflect the age we are living in, when many Africans are questioning the relationship with the West, and why there is still so much poverty in such a resource-rich continent.’ A 2024 survey in 39 countries by Afrobarometer showed a drop in support for democracy, although it remained the most popular form of government. ‘Democracy has failed to give hope to the youth. It has not delivered jobs or better education and health, etc.’ (‘Why Burkina Faso’s junta leader has captured hearts and minds around the world,’ BBC, 11/05/2025).

However, at a more general but objective level, out of at least 242 successful military coups that have occurred globally since 1950, Africa accounts for the largest number at 106. It is estimated that since 1950, there have been 189 country-years of democracy in Africa, compared to 1823 country-years of dictatorship.

As a part of his revolution to ensure Burkina Faso benefits from its mineral wealth, the junta ditched former colonial power, France, in favour of a strong alliance with Russia and China, has engaged a Russian paramilitary brigade, and adopted left-wing economic policies. Among other things, the president nationalised two gold mines owned by a London-listed firm and plans to take control of more foreign-owned mines. Not surprisingly, then, French President Emmanuel Macron prefers to see him as one of a ‘baroque alliance between self-proclaimed pan-Africans and neo-imperialists’ such as Russia and China.

On the flipside, President Traore has failed in his promise to restore civilian rule by 2024 and to quell a 10-year Islamic insurgency that had brought havoc close to the capital city, Ouagadougou, within 3 months of his coming to power.  Traore is said to have cracked down on dissent, including the opposition, media and civil society groups, and punished critics, among them medics and magistrates, by sending them to the frontlines of the war against the jihadists (‘Burkina Faso outcry over ‘conscription used to punish junta critics,’ (BBC News, 06/02/2024).

Incidentally and perhaps of interest to Guyana, Burkina Faso has a border conflict with Benin that was taken to the ICJ in 2010 and received a unanimous decision in 2013 that was intended ‘to settle the amicably’ but as of today, the border issue has not been fully settled!

Research has shown that much of Traore’s popularity has been fueled through social media, including many misleading posts intended to bolster his revolutionary image. AI-generated videos of various projects, where music stars like R Kelly, Rihanna, Justin Bieber and Beyoncé are seen immortalising him through song, although they have done nothing of the sort. The video of the pope was bound to be refuted, but it says something of the lengths astroturfers are prepared to go in the hope of maintaining whatever residue remains from the fallout.

The popularity of the leadership of dictatorial military governments is not new. When, by way of a coupe, at the age of 32, Gerry Rawlings took power in Ghana, he was known as ‘Junior Jesus’, but he left office after almost two decades with a mixed legacy, one positive aspect of which was his helping to create an ‘enduring’ democracy. If a system of government is to be blamed for the conditions of Africa today, it is most likely autocracy/dictatorship, and we are seeing in Guyana the alienation and instability to which it inevitably leads. One commentator suggests that for ‘a “lasting legacy Traoré should focus on achieving peace and building strong state institutions to bring about good governance’ ( op. Cit. BBC 11/05/2025).

Regards,

Dr. Henry Jeffrey

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