Coronavirus: The next wave has reached our shores; hope you’re prepared

Aug 29, 2021 Dr Zulfikar Bux, Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt Medical Center

Kaieteur News – Over the past fortnight, we have been seeing a slow rise in cases and the numbers are now alarming with the situation looking ominous. One cannot ignore the fact that the world has been experiencing the wave of the delta variant and it was only a matter of time before it reached the shores of Guyana. I am afraid that that time has arrived and we need to brace ourselves for the “delta wave”.
Current situation in Guyana?
On August 7, 2021, our seven-day average case numbers were steady at 58 cases daily. As of yesterday, the seven-day average had jumped to 131 cases. This is a clear sign of an upward trend in infections. In addition, we are seeing patients that are sicker and presenting earlier with moderate to severe forms of the disease. There has been a 24 percent rise in hospitalised COVID-19 patients during the same period. The unvaccinated are accounting for the COVID-19 deaths so far but the vaccinated are presenting for treatment with more serious symptoms than previously. All of this points to a new trend and while we do not test for variants locally, the alarm bells are ringing that a new variant is responsible for this new trend. Given the international patterns with the delta variant, we cannot ignore the high likelihood of this variant being responsible for the recent change in events.
What we know about the delta variant
The delta variant is the most efficient form of the SARSCOV2 virus (coronavirus) and was first detected back in December 2020 in India. It is spreading 50 percent faster than its previous form, the Alpha variant, which was 50 percent more contagious than the original strain of the coronavirus. Experts theorised that in a completely unmitigated environment—where no one is vaccinated or wearing masks—it’s estimated that the average person infected with the original coronavirus strain will infect 2.5 other people. In the same environment, Delta would spread from one person to maybe 3.5 or 4 other people. This version of the coronavirus is a “beast” and runs through populations like a wildfire leaving trails of the dead in its tracks.
What may happen if it is the “delta wave”?
We have seen what this “efficient beast” did in countries like India and the US Hospitals become overwhelmed and death rates increase further because some infected patients did not have effective access to appropriate medical care. If we are not careful and we let our guards down, the “beast” can repeat such devastations in Guyana. Based on experiences from other countries, this wave can last from one to three months and will depend largely on our vaccine uptake and behavioural patterns. Previously, our worst seven day average death rate hovered around four deaths per day. If we assume similar numbers of deaths with this wave, then there is a possibility of us losing between 200 to 400 of our fellow Guyanese within the next two to three months. That can be heartbreaking and we need to get our act together and take actions that will prepare ourselves to survive this wave.
How you can prepare yourself
Contrary to all the myths and rumours that are being spread about COVID-19 vaccines, your best investment for the incoming wave is to ensure you are fully vaccinated. If you do not believe, Google “vaccines and delta variant deaths” and you will be swamped with articles from many reputable sites showing that the overwhelming majority of deaths are coming from the unvaccinated population. In addition to being vaccinated, you can add more layers of protection to your armour by continuing to wear masks and avoid sharing closed and poorly ventilated spaces with others. Finally, ensure your immune system is optimised by exercising, eating healthy, avoiding stress when possible, and your vitamin uptake is optimal.
While I do not have the factual evidence in the form of tests to validate my prediction that the delta variant is with us, one would have to be reckless to ignore the recent trend and not assume the worst. In any case, we are more prepared to “ride” this wave than previous waves; vaccinate and be wise when you interact with others!

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