Lessons from around the world

Apr 27, 2020 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Europe, which wasthe epicentre of the pandemic before it was surpassed by the United States, has begun to show signs of recovery.
The curves have begun to bend in Italy.
After a 7-week lockdown and more than 23,000 deaths, Spain has finally begun to ease some of the social restrictions that it put in place to stem its coronavirus epidemic. Children under 13 years of age are now being allowed outside of the home.
In Italy, the daily death toll is also falling. The country’s curves – total deaths, active cases, total cases and daily new deaths – have also been bending to the right. France, Italy, Spain and Germany all seem to have passed their peak infections. The curve has not yet bent in the United Kingdom, but is likely to do in another 2 weeks.
The United States of America has averaged more than 2,000 deaths per day over the last 2 weeks, with the largest number of deaths originating in New York State.
Once the epidemic there stabilizes, the worst may be over, but the virus will not completely disappear and deaths will continue until a vaccine is found.
If developed and found to be safe, a vaccine is not likely to be ready for mass inoculations anytime soon. At least it is not expected to be ready within nine months at the earliest. Researchers in the United Kingdom are hoping to have a vaccine by September, but even if they are successful in developing a vaccine, it would still not be able to be used until it is approved. A short-term medical solution is therefore not on the cards.
The virus’s spread, therefore, will have to be suppressed. The only way this is going to be done is through social restrictions – lockdowns and social distancing.
These measures are designed primarily, however, to prevent health systems from being overwhelmed – but once implemented for an extended period can limit the virus’s spread.
Once enough persons within a society have recovered from the virus and therefore are no longer carriers or transmitters of the virus, the spread will be contained. This is what is known as herd immunity. However, it has been estimated that it will require more than 60% of the population to be infected for herd immunity to develop.
Given the high level of contagion and death rate of the coronavirus, herd immunity is certainly not the ideal strategy.
Very few countries can handle the deaths which will accompanying herd immunity strategies. For countries like Guyana, it would be devastating for such a strategy to be implemented.
Guyanese have to pray the Ocean View Hotel and the Cliff Anderson Sports Hall, which are being readied to accommodate possible cases, are not required. The employment of these facilities would mean that Guyana would have reached a stage where the existing health system could not cope.
Right now Guyana is buckling at the knees under the weight of this virus. Guyana’s lockdown was at least one week too late. This was a costly error. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has since risen to 74. ‘One, one dutty does build dam.’
The COVID-19 cases have been rising one by one and will continue to do so over the next few days until it builds a ‘dam’. When that ‘dam’ breaks, it will be dire
The three-week partial lockdown has been ineffectual. Simple tweaking of the restrictions would have made a huge difference.
The markets have been the biggest culprits. Large numbers of persons have been entering unprotected and unconcerned.
Social distancing is not being practiced, particularly by roadside vendors operating outside or near to markets. It must be recalled that the virus originated in a wet market in China.
More information is needed on the regional and sub-regional distribution of new cases, the number of active cases, the number of non-medical persons who are in quarantine and isolation, and the average age of those dying and showing serious symptoms.
The number of tests are being increased. But at the same time, the number of negative tests are also increasing, which would suggest that there is need for a more defined protocol for testing.
Little is being said about contact-tracing, which has been used in many countries to help stop the spread of the virus. We know there were four imported cases, but has contact-tracing been able to link all the new cases to these four cases.
Where exactly are we headed in containing this deadly virus? Guyana’s response has left much to be desired. Too much politics have been involved in the decision-making. Do we have the right people in the right places?
The world will recover. Will Guyana? Will you survive the pandemic?

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper)

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