The CCJ decision does not hurt the PPPC

Jul 06, 2018 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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Forbes Burnham once warned his political opponents that shooting him was a waste, another Rasta would take his place. Forbes Burnham, of course was no friend of Rastafarians – he attacked the local Rastafarian community, circumscribing their activities and even let loose the police on them.
But Burnham was using the word “Rasta” in the different context. What he wanted to say is that replacing him would not bring change; someone committed to continuing his legacy would arise.
He was a little wrong there. Desmond Hoyte continued the human rights abuses, the rigging of elections and some of Burnham’s distasteful policies of his predecessor. But he also, with his back to the wall and nowhere to run, changed economic direction and loosened some of the shackles on press freedom.
It is said today that it matters not who the political parties select as their presidential candidates. They can each dress up a toad in a suit and still enjoy overwhelming support.
Ever since 1957, ethnic voting has been dominant in every election. Why the CCJ decision should change that is hard to imagine. The ethnic polarization is a product of ethnic insecurity which forces persons to vote, so often, against their own vested interests.
David Granger was a political unknown prior to 2011. Yet he did just as well as Desmond Hoyte did in the 1992 elections, and far better than Robert Corbin did in the 2006 elections. So it does not matter who is the presidential candidate, racial voting will still predominate at election time.
The CCJ decision in the Cedric Richardson case does not change that calculus. So it is a bit of a stretch of logic for it to be said that the CCJ decision has hurt the PPPC chances at returning to power.
When Jagdeo demitted office, the same thing was said. It was argued that his successor would not be able to hold the party’s core support. He not only did that but lost the elections by a mere whisker.
The CCJ decision may have ended the presidential ambitions of Bharrat Jagdeo. He may have also been the best candidate that the PPPC could put forward. However, the argument that his barring from contesting the presidency hurts the PPPC is false.
Those making this argument are paying a compliment to Jagdeo. They are in such fear of him that they are relieved that he is not contesting and they believe that his non-contesting of the presidency means that the PPPC chances have been seriously hurt.
It just shows how fearful the WPA, the PNCR and the AFC were of his candidacy. Within those camps, the public elation within at the CCJ decision suggests both hatred of the PPPC leader and relief that he would not have a chance of dethroning the coalition’s candidate.
Bharrat Jagdeo may have been a dominant figure within the PPP but there should be no confusion as to the difference between marginal parties and mass-based parties. The PNCR and the PPPC are mass-based parties. The WPA is a marginal party. In marginal parties, the loss of a leader, can destroy that party’s support base. But this is not the case with mass-based parties.
The CCJ decision has not and will not dent the PPPC support. Instead, it is migration of a great chunk of its support base has hurt the PPPC since 1992. The party’s majority declined consistently between 1992 and 2011 when the opposition was able to eclipse the PPPC and reduce it to a minority government. Four years later, the PPP gained the same percentage of the votes and lost the presidency.
The pre-election coalition allowed for the end of the PPP regime. Were there no pre-election coalition, the PPPC would have been in government.
If the PPPC is going to be kept out in the 2020 elections, it will not be because Bharrat Jagdeo was barred from running as President. The PPPC chances depend on the PPPC’s ability to mobilize beyond its base.
Jagdeo has been on a misguided political strategy of trying to regain what he sees as losses in his party’s political base. Support in his base has not shrunk; the base itself has been reduced because of migration. Jagdeo has been wasting resources mobilizing a base that is already mobilized.
Jagdeo, because of his popularity, his superior skills at managing an economy and because of his track record of delivering economic benefits to the people, may have been able to dethrone the APNU+AFC because he enjoys substantive support outside of his party’s traditional base.
The PPPC must not be ruled out of contention, regardless of who is its presidential candidate. Its base is intact but migration has hurt the PPPC so badly that its base alone may not be able to deliver the votes needed for victory in 2020.

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