BIG BUCKS CAN WIN THE ELECTION FOR OBAMA

Apr 08, 2011 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Elections would seem to be the last thing on the minds of Americans. But this week’s announcement kick-starting the re-election campaign of Barack Obama is a reminder that next year, Americans will go to the polls.
The decision facing them would be whether to give a historic president a second chance or to give someone else an opportunity. Obama promised much but has delivered little.
In fairness, however, he has been weighed down with far too many problems, has tried his best to build bipartisan support, has had a long battle over health care and these have sucked the energies of his presidency and left him with little to show since he has come to office.
His party’s loss of control of Congress may be as good a referendum as any that the Americans are looking beyond him come next year.
They have to make a choice once again as to whether to continue with him. Opinion polls suggest that the American people are divided as to whether he should be given a second term. His opinion ratings are not that impressive but a great deal can change between now and elections.
Unlike other Presidents who recovered from poor ratings one year before elections, there seems little prospect for a steep rise in his approval ratings in the near future, even though a marginal increase translated to voter support should be enough to see him through.
He does not need more than 55% support of the total votes cast to win the election, which is a highly complex process. Even with a minority of support, he may still be able to win the Electoral College.
Obama’s chances for re-election will depend to a great extent on the mood of the country. Some commentators feel that it will also depend on who challenges him.
Winning the confidence of the people will also require an effective campaign and no better way to have this than to have big bucks. Big bucks are going to be needed to re-elect Obama.
This fact has already been recognized and is no doubt the reason behind the early announcement. It does give his re-election team an advance start over his potential rivals.
Whether incumbency will have its benefits will depend on what happens between now and the elections. There are many who still feel that the President has been given a mighty task and has fared reasonably well.
But last November’s mid-term elections suggested also that large numbers of American are impatient with the rate of recovery and are not prepared to continue with promises. It has not been easy for Obama. He has been seriously constrained. No other leader since the Second World War has faced the sort of challenges that Obama has faced. He took over the country at a time when the American economy was in contractions because of the sub-prime crisis.
While Obama has managed to remove combat troops out of Iraq and will soon complete the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the timetables were consistently pushed back. For Americans, war is an emotive issue, and families with loved ones serving on the frontlines are keen for these timelines to be met, so that their sons and daughters serving overseas can come home.
Most of them will soon be home, but these families have already signaled what they saw as the failure to keep campaign promises relating to troop withdrawals.
But while Obama has not had it easy, he has also not made it easier on himself. He has failed to provide global leadership. When the Middle East crisis broke, he seemed undecided on a course of action, and even with the backing of a UN Security Council Resolution on Libya, the Americans seem to not know which buttons to press.
At the same time, there are signs that American influence is once again waning and stands to further downgrade.
Against this backdrop, Obama’s chances of being re-elected do not look good. But he obviously feels differently – and even if he did not, he would still be expected to seek another term. But his and his campaign team’s work is cut out. Yet he has the benefit of an excellent campaign team. They did the job in ensuring he was elected as President and they may be hopeful that they can do it again. This time they will have to show that Obama is more than just promising hope. They will have to convince the American people that from his record he deserves a second chance, and that is a hard sell.
But while the odds are stacked against Obama, if he raises one billion dollars as planned for his re-election campaign, he cannot lose. No matter what happens in the economy from now on, if Obama raises one billion dollars, he wins the elections. And he knows this!

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