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Half profit share
Editorial…
(Kaieteur News) – Official figures are that Guyana received US$1.127B in profits for the second quarter of 2026. ExxonMobil is poised to report its profit for the same second quarter. What will it be, with an eye firmly fixed on Guyana’s contribution to the company’s overall profit? In a half and half profit-sharing formula, it is reasonable to expect that what Guyana got is what ExxonMobil should report from its oil operations in Guyana.
The oil giant’s 2026 first quarter earnings topped off at US$4.2B. A solid part of that came from Guyana, whose “FPSO performance is industry leading in operational availability.” Its second quarter profits are estimated to be almost double. Higher oil prices from war are a big contributor. So, how will Guyana fare in its quest for a true half share of profits from its oil?
Guyana contributed 900,000 barrels of oil daily to ExxonMobil’s total second quarter production (and revenues), but recorded a profit intake of US$1.127B in the same period. We at this paper are keenly interested in ExxonMobil’s total profit numbers for the just concluded second quarter, how much Guyana contributed to that, and how Guyana’s profit share compares. It may require some extra effort to segregate Guyana’s portion of the company’s total profits, but history has proved that whatever is obscured has a way of being cleared up. ExxonMobil is expected to disclose its full second quarter earnings report by month end. It should make for informative reading.
Could ExxonMobil be set to announce a total profit of around US$8B as a start for the period 1st April- 30th June,2026? Though that would be from its global oil production and other businesses, crude oil sales are usually a massive chunk of the company’s profits. We expect that significant profit amount, when the Strait of Hormuz difficulties are factored in, and resulting oil price increases are considered. Against, all of this, we are aware of the disadvantage of no ringfencing of oil projects. There are two numbers pertaining to Guyana, however, that cause us no end of disquiet.
For starters, Guyana’s second quarter profit share stands at US$1.127B. From this early point, (pre-ExxonMobil official 2nd quarter results), it already compares poorly to the numbers estimated to be reported by ExxonMobil. The company’s own early disclosures inspired that thought. Carved out this way or that, it is beyond any doubt that the second quarter profit for ExxonMobil from its Guyana operations is not going to be equal to US$1.127B. By month end, Guyana gets to appreciate again how half and half works with ExxonMobil. Where there are unequal halves -the bigger half for ExxonMobil, and what is still called half, though many times smaller, for Guyana. Without ringfencing, this is Guyana’s fate.
Second, at the end of 2025, Guyana’s cost bank was reduced to US$4.5B. Using an average price of US$80 per barrel, and 900,000 barrels of oil produced daily, Guyana would have earned US$12.3B, by 20th June,2026. The daily production rate is indisputable, and US$80 a barrel average price is market-based, though conservative. The last US$4.5B due to ExxonMobil, therefore, should have been wiped out around the end of the first quarter of 2026, or early in the second quarter. Guyana is now on an equal, dollar for dollar, profit footing with ExxonMobil, since the entire cost bank has been paid off. From the early indications, equal profit does not seem to be that way, or heading in that direction. This is where the lack of ringfencing hurts.
To confirm: ExxonMobil has said a second quarter profit surge is coming from war and higher oil prices. We are concerned that it is going to be business as usual, and the same low profit for Guyana compared to ExxonMobil’s profit haul. It is likely to be a multiple of Guyana’s US$1.127B for the second quarter. Without ringfencing, Guyana will always be the loser. Meanwhile, the Guyana Government has decided that silence is best when billions of US dollars are involved. An equal half is a matter for the government to be up in arms, facing ExxonMobil unflinchingly. Where is Guyana’s real half and half profit? Guyana demands it now. Without ringfencing oil projects, Guyana may never get it,
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