Former U.S. trade official warns of permanent shift to transactional global trade

Jun 18, 2026 News

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By Khadidja Bah

(Kaieteur News) – The era of predictable, rules-based global trade that sustained international commerce for the last 30 years is officially over, replaced by an enduring, leverage-based transactional system from Washington.

Speaking on Wednesday at the World Trade Centre Georgetown’s “Growing Business with the United States” session, Arun Venkataraman, former head of the U.S. Foreign Commercial Service, warned Guyanese private sector leaders that the aggressive “America First” tariff and trade regimes of the Trump administration represent a structural realignment of global economics rather than a temporary disruption.

“If anyone thinks this is something that will happen for the next two and a half years, you’re not paying attention,” Venkataraman told the gathering. “This is not a blip; this is not a hiccup. The change that has happened is fundamental and it is enduring… The world that we’ve been living in for the last 30 years of relative predictability and stability- that ease is gone for the foreseeable future.”

Responding to a question from Dr. Wesley Kirton, Executive Director, World Trade Centre Georgetown, regarding whether a different U.S. leader might bring a “kinder, gentler approach” to global commerce, Venkataraman emphasised that deep-seated domestic dissatisfaction with the status quo spans across the American political landscape, meaning a return to old multilateral norms remains highly unlikely.

Venkataraman detailed how Washington has deployed a tripartite tariff strategy to force domestic onshoring and penalise trading partners. This strategy relies first on universal tariffs, which levy a baseline 10% duty across all imported goods following a series of legal battles that culminated in the U.S. Supreme Court.

The second pillar involves country-specific duties that target individual nations under regulatory frameworks. This includes a newly proposed 12% country-specific rate for Guyana, the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, and Trinidad and Tobago stemming from a recent forced labour investigation.

Finally, sector-specific duties are being utilised to strike critical industries such as metals, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. This includes a 100% baseline penalty on medical goods that scales down only if companies commit to U.S.-based manufacturing plans.

While Guyana’s booming crude oil exports, comprising roughly 95% of its $5 billion annual trade with the U.S., and high-grade bauxite remain largely insulated via specific energy sector exemptions, the former commercial head acknowledged that the traditional benefits of the U.S.-Caribbean Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA) have been severely diluted.

Because the CBTPA only waives standard “Most Favored Nation” duties, it leaves Guyanese agricultural and newly emerging non-oil industries exposed to the hefty new universal and country-specific emergency tariff rates.

The China Dilemma

The most pointed exchanges of the forum centered on Guyana’s delicate geopolitical balancing act between Washington and Beijing. Amb. Baney Karran noted that three successive U.S. Secretaries of State, including current Secretary Marco Rubio, have traveled to Georgetown to caution against expanding business ties with China, even as a Chinese state-owned firm (CNOOC) maintains a highly lucrative, foundational joint venture with U.S. oil major ExxonMobil in the Stabroek Block.

Venkataraman revealed that Washington is actively contemplating an unprecedented overhaul of its “rules of origin” frameworks to penalise Chinese company ownership, even when the products are manufactured entirely within third-party nations like Guyana.

“This administration is starting to rethink their approach to rules of origin and think about whether rules of origin should now incorporate some element of company ownership,” Venkataraman explained. “It means two companies sitting side by side in the same country would face different tariff rates… Access to the U.S. market is restricted the more Chinese components are used.”

When pressed directly on whether expanding relations with China could trigger U.S. economic “punishment” or a potential cooling of Washington’s vocal security support for Guyana regarding Venezuela’s territorial aggression, Venkataraman did not dismiss the danger.

“No, I think that is a risk. That is a very fair risk,” he stated, highlighting that the White House’s National Security Strategy explicitly targets the Western Hemisphere as the central theater of foreign affairs. “The United States… is going to pay particular attention to the role that China plays in local economies in the region. That could very much draw a significant concern.”

Quizzed by Demerara Waves journalist Dennis Chabrol on why Chinese entities haven’t been “chased out” of the Stabroek Block if their presence is so toxic to Washington, Venkataraman demurred slightly, suggesting U.S. authorities likely perceive a specific geopolitical “line at which that involvement is too great,” which has not yet been crossed.

Navigating the CARICOM Divide

The reorientation toward a strictly transactional U.S. trade policy creates additional friction for regional integration. Replying to David Hills, who voiced concerns that pursuing bilateral trade deals would violate the collective bargaining spirit of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Venkataraman admitted that the Trump administration’s rigid preference for bilateral agreements over regional pacts introduces severe institutional tension.

“The downside of [negotiating as CARICOM] is that not all of CARICOM can bring to the table what Guyana can,” Venkataraman remarked, noting that Washington successfully deployed similar country-by-country fracture strategies across Southeast Asia rather than negotiating collectively with ASEAN. “I don’t know that the administration has the appetite for the type of negotiation that allows for the full participation of CARICOM.”

Despite the challenging landscape, Venkataraman emphasised that opportunities exist for Guyanese companies nimble enough to align themselves directly with strategic U.S. national security priorities, such as securing non-Chinese supply lines for critical minerals like bauxite, utilising custom code structures to offset input duties, and aggressively leveraging the connectivity of the Guyanese diaspora to forge direct commercial partnerships.

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• Arun Venkataraman, Global Trade, leverage, transactional, World Trade Centre

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