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$500 billion oil Windfall to fuel 2026 Budget
(Kaieteur News) – The much-anticipated budget for the fiscal year 2026 can be funded with about $500B or US$2.4B in oil revenue which flowed into the Natural Resource Fund (NRF), according to government’s revised regulations.
Notably, the NRF Act of 2021 sets a ceiling on the withdrawal amount for each year. In 2024, the government of Guyana revised the first schedule of the law which sets out the guidelines for withdrawals from the Fund.
For any fiscal year, it allows 100% withdrawal of the first US$1 billion received in the preceding year, 95% of the next US$1B, 90% of the third US$1B, 85% of the fourth billion, 50% of the fifth billion, and 10% of amounts exceeding US$5 billion.
Finance Minister, Dr. Ashni Singh
Figures verified by an independent accountant indicate that government will be allowed to withdraw about US$2.4B or G$500B to finance this year’s budget, considering the country’s earnings from the sector last year.
Receipts published by the Bank of Guyana reveal that during the year 2025, Guyana earned approximately US$2.4B in oil revenue, inclusive of profits, royalties and a US$15M signing bonus, paid by oil and gas companies for a Shallow Water block.
Meanwhile, in 2025, $512.4 billion or US $2.5 billion from the NRF was used to fund the Budget.
While concerns were raised regarding raiding of the fund, leaving little or nothing for savings and emergency situations, the government defended the rationale behind the revision.
Vice President, Bharrat Jagdeo previously explained that spending the revenues now “gives us a greater return than saving at this point in time for inter-generational equity, which will come later.”
Jagdeo at the time justified the formula change by talking about the country’s development needs and the potential for higher returns through investment in the short term.
“So, we believe that when you look at the sums given the size of the budget, it’s not unreasonable now to utilise a bit more from the NRF,” he said.
Asked to respond to concerns about savings, the VP said that the new rule would ensure significant savings once revenues reach a certain level. “So, it’s not a time-bound thing. It is a quantum-bound issue,” he said.
In the meantime, government has been silently preparing to announce the 2026 Budget, which is expected to be announced in the National Assembly on Monday. With expectations high in some quarters, others expect the government to continue “skewed allocations” to benefit specific sections of society.
Leader of the A Partnership for National Unity (APNU) Aubrey Norton told reporters that, “The fundamental problem we face is the skewed allocation of resources, into programs and projects that allow family, friends and favorites to get rich.”
Norton believes that a change in this pattern would be difficult, adding that this year’s budget is not likely to be produced on equity. According to him, this means, that those with less in the population would get less while those getting more are likely to benefit from more.
“They are going to continue down the same road that they have been going. And so, I can say to you, I didn’t expect them to consult us, because if they consult us, we will put to them the things we have in our manifesto, which is based on putting the people first,” the former Opposition Leader said.
More recently, APNU also urged the government to avoid increasing the country’s debt profile, amid falling oil prices.
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