Chevron v. Exxon and barrel upside

Nov 21, 2025 Features / Columnists, The GHK Lall Column

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Hard Truths by GHK Lall

(Kaieteur News) – “When you think of 11 billion barrels, big fields get bigger…I would expect upside.”  The speaker was Chevron’s Vice Chairman, Mr. Mark Nelson, with his context being Guyana’s legendary Stabroek Block.  A vice chair is a Big Kahuna, worth a hearing.  Big risks lead to bigger rewards.  Sometimes.  Or invest big, reap bigger harvests.

The first discernment must be that Mr. Nelson walks a fine line.  Chevron is part of a partnership, the Exxon-powered consortium.  Exxon did not welcome Chevron with open arms.  Chevron’s seniors have to speak carefully, pick their battles even more sensibly.  Newcomers have to pay their dues; better seen, heard less.  The other side of that coin is that Chevron forked out US$53 billion for Hess Corporation, which included Guyana’s gloriously promising Stabroek Block.  Why should it sit on 11 billion barrels, and be content with that number?  There is “upside” the man said, and I don’t think he is talking through his nose, but sending a signal to his investors.  This is why 53 big ones were paid to Hess Corp, to get into the heart of Guyana’s oil and gas promise.

I look at this another way.  If 11 billion barrels are the extent of the current/known Stabroek’s Block reservoirs, then Chevron had better be prepared to grind it out in its efforts to recoup that US$53 billion splurge.  Since juicy discoveries had kept popping up in the Stabroek Block, it was a low-risk/high return venture, per Chevron’s visions.  It should not come as news to Guyanese, therefore, when vice chair Nelson “upside” took his form: “There’s (sic) some deeper reservoirs to test, and we look forward to working with the partner to do that.”  What is that?

What was that all about?  Clearly, Chevron is rearing to go, pushing for more exploration, contributing its skills.  And, naturally, adding to its bankroll, while shoring up its prospects and name in the watching Wall Street community.  Like Exxon’s stock, Chevron’s also flourishes or stagnates with how that community assesses the returns from its multibillion-dollar Guyana investment.  While Chevron is all energy and spirit to move beyond Guyana’s long-stated and stale-dated reserves of 11 billion barrels, Exxon is stuck where it has been for years now.  I let the leader of Exxon Guyana, Mr. Alistair Routledge, speak. 

“The government released a number of 11.6 billion oil equivalent barrels, ExxonMobil’s estimate is lower than that number…our number remains a little under 11 billion oil equivalent barrels.”  From 180km per hour to zero, with one new discovery after another, then zilch, nada.  I apologize to Mr. Routledge: same song, same verse.  Same doubts over here.  But, in an effort at reassuring skeptics and cynics, Mr. Routledge came out with the persuasive, what resonates.  Exxon is obligated to include new reserve levels to the U.S.  Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).  Unsaid was that if Exxon knows what’s good for it, then it would operate by those obligations.  For sure, Exxon has a duty to report oil and gas reserves to the SEC.  But Mr. Routledge left out something that I am obligated to share with Guyanese.  It’s that dangling thread, at which Chevron’s Nelson grasps.

First, congratulations to the Guyana Exxon chief for doing that quiet namedropping with the SEC, a seal that few would question.  Second, pursuant to revisions of SEC Regulation S-K and Regulation S-X, oil and gas companies are required to disclose “proved reserves.”  Third, and pointedly in the context of Guyana, oil and gas companies have the option, but are not required, to disclose Probable or Possible reserves.  The old SEC rules employed a “certainty” standard for reserve disclosures, which the new rules amended to “reasonable certainty.”  Personally speaking, the lower bar of “reasonable certainty”, along with nondisclosure of Probable or Possible reserves empowers Exxon to sit back and play dumb.  It can adopt a ‘go-slow’ mentality relative to sharing details on new barrels with its shareholders, and the Guyanese owners of those offshore oilfields.  Like Tylenol capsules, slow release the good news.  Manage expectations.

Last, in one of his press engagements, Mr. Routledge had limited himself to stating that Exxon was prioritizing the monetization of known/current oil and gas assets.  Exxon itself announced eight new oil discoveries in the last few years, but the only number disclosed being that eight.  Ever hear of oil discoveries, but no barrels?  Not a digit about how many new barrels discovered.  Further, the billions for exploration continue to be billed to Guyana.  But all Guyanese hear about is 11 billion barrels, 11.6 billion barrels, or under 11 billion barrels, as if that flash drive has three warps.  Guyanese watch to see how long this charade lasts.  Chevron is impatient, wants to pilot its own breakout Guyana discoveries.  Stay tuned to Exxon v. Chevron and the battle for more barrels.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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• Chevron, Exxon, GHK Lall, Guyana Oil, oil barrel

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