The silence on falling oil prices

Oct 23, 2025 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

---

(Kaieteur News) – I am surprised—perhaps that is too mild a word—astonished, really—that the government has had nothing to say about the slow, steady, and now unmistakable decline in oil prices. It is not as if Brent crude had merely caught a passing cold. Since January, when a barrel fetched close to eighty dollars, the price has slipped to about sixty-five, a decline of nearly twenty percent. That is not simply a fluctuation; that is a statement from the market. Yet, in the face of this silent storm, the government has remained curiously unruffled, like a man reading the evening paper while his house burns down around him.

Oil, after all, is not just a commodity for Guyana; it is the shining promise on which dreams and budgets alike are built. Every kilometre of highway, every new hospital and housing scheme, every gleaming plan for gas-to-energy—all draw life from that barrel of oil. And when the price of that barrel declines, it is not just a number that falls. It is the hum of the machinery of government that begins to falter.

You would expect, therefore, that someone in officialdom might have stepped forward to offer a word of reassurance, or perhaps a sober warning. But nothing has been said. The silence is as dense as the humidity before a thunderstorm. The government has pressed ahead with its programmes as if the price of oil were still fixed in the heavens, immune to the push and pull of global tides.

Perhaps, in their hearts, they believe the slide is temporary, a mere hiccup before prices rebound. But faith, while admirable in church, is a poor substitute for prudence in matters of national finance. A twenty percent decline in oil prices means less revenue, fewer U.S. dollars flowing into the Treasury, and if one follows the logic to its conclusion less money to spend. That should give pause to even the most optimistic planner.

There is talk of an early budget for next year. Yet if prices continue on their southward journey, the government may find itself forced to trade the trumpet for a tambourine, announcing cuts instead of expansions. The irony is that a slowdown might not be entirely a bad thing.

For months now, the economy has been wheezing under the weight of its own exuberance. Too much money chasing too few workers, too many projects and too little time. The President has had to play schoolmaster, reading the Riot Act to contractors on the East Bank Road works. The Bharrat Jagdeo Bridge was not completed in time for the elections that appeared to be timed for its opening. That must have been a major disappointment for the ruling party. The Railway Embankment widening drags on, and the much-vaunted gas-to-energy project has stumbled over its own timetables.

Everywhere, there are signs of strain: inflated prices, materials in short supply, labour even scarcer. The economy is like a horse asked to gallop beyond its strength. It is still running, but foaming at the mouth. Public spending, which was meant to spur progress, has instead overheated the system, driving costs upward and stretching capacity to the breaking point.

In such circumstances, a decline in oil revenue could serve as a natural brake, a cooling breeze after a feverish sprint. It would force the government to do what it has so far refused to do voluntarily: to slow down, to prioritize, to take stock. Not every grand design must be built in a single year. Not every promise needs to mature before the next election. There is, after all, wisdom in pacing oneself, in allowing an economy to breathe. I do not suggest austerity. Guyana has known enough of that in its long and patient history. Instead, I suggest moderation and balance. The country is young in its oil age, and youth has a way of believing itself immortal. Yet even a young nation must learn that windfalls can wither, that prices fall as easily as they rise, and that no budget is too sacred to revise.

The silence of the government in the face of this price decline might be a studied calm, a decision to project confidence. Or it might be something less reassuring: a reluctance to face reality until the numbers demand it. Either way, silence is not policy. The public, whose future depends on these revenues, deserves to know whether the State has a plan beyond hope. Perhaps, when the budget is tabled, we will see a gentler curve, a tempering of exuberance, a quiet acknowledgment that even oil-rich nations must live within their means. If that happens, we might look back and say that the fall in oil prices was not a curse but a subtle reminder that prosperity, to endure, must be managed, not merely spent. Until then, we wait…and listen to the silence.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.) 

---

• falling, Oil prices, Peeping Tom, Silence

---