Looking at Brassingtons numbers informs me that somebody is doing a number on Guyanese

Feb 20, 2023 Features / Columnists, The GHK Lall Column

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OP:ED

By GHK Lall

Kaieteur News – All Guyana that pays attention owes Mr. Winston Brassington a word of thanks for his lovely offering on the gas-to-shore project at the International Energy Conference of 2023. It was a beauty of a symphony, that mere US$55M annually for the eternity of 20 years for the gas to get to the ground at Wales. Jazzy that symphony of Mr. Brassington.

The Taskforce Head furnished an array of numbers which, with a mainly uncritical nod to his careful efforts and work product, laid out where things stood with this project, so watched, and the cause of such considerable unease in Guyana. Without attempting to pry into the head of the Taskforce Head, my thinking is that if his objectives were to impress and intimidate his fellows, then he may not have done as well as expected on both counts, and some additional work on the drawing board is now recommended. From a numbers perspective alone, Mr. Brassingtons output is sure to open eyes, while leaving others a bit on the blank, confused, depressed, and falling behind side.

I read about cubic feet and thermal units and conversion factor, and much more, for all of which Mr. Brassington is owed a round of applause, perhaps a debt of gratitude. Yeoman handiwork, indeed. Notwithstanding the Taskforce Chiefs herculean efforts, I still find it necessary, however, to suggest that he could have done a tad better and, in the process, do a great service to his fellow Guyanese. In a cupped hand, he could have made things much simpler, leading to the smoother, the clearer.

It is my position that it would be more enlightening, of much more practical value, if he was astute enough to give Guyanese a calculation that captures and conveys the following:

1) 50MM x 365 x 20 x 1k (daily cubic feet quantity of gas times number of days x years x conversion rate/factor) to arrive at the total quantity of gas involved. It should be noted that I have arbitrarily taken the liberty of using a British Thermal Unit conversion factor of 1000 and not 1050 units, as is more conventional. This is to be on the safe side, with a lot of leeway for what I shall call the unusual.

At this stage, we have the total quantity/output of gas anticipated to flow through the pipeline to shore. Then, I mention to Mr. Brassington that citizens are sure to be better equipped, well on their way, to making their own calculations, when the following cost details are provided:

2) Pipeline cost
3) Gas plant cost
4) The operations cost, and
5) The cost of funds (money to make all of the above possible, each of which would be massive).

With both sides (quantity and costs) of the aforementioned in hand, Guyanese are then in good shape to take matters from there and get to a place that is confidence inducing. In other words, locals can do their own calculations, make their own conclusions, and all on a numbers-driven basis, thanks to their own studious efforts. The release of assumptions used (and this is crucial) would assist immensely. Essentials on this gas-to-energy, and related issues and concerns, such as the real cost of electricity, and how economical (feasible) this project would turn out to be, would all be out in the open, and matters can distill from there to wherever they terminate, however they terminate. I dont think that this is asking for too much of either Mr. Brassington, or the PPP Government. In fact, I would be surprised if this humble submission would not be found endearing, something to take to heart.

As a quick aside that still has some relationship to Mr. Brassingtons Energy Conference/Expo presentation, these additional points are placed in the public domain, because they do have a bearing on things gas. A few years back, there was never a word from Exxon about excess gas, or gas-to-shore considerations. The thinking was that the gas was going to have to be reinjected by Exxon into its offshore operations. In reinjection, there was a cost for Exxon (really, Guyanas). Fast forward to today, and now the air is saturated with great passion and devotion about gas-to-shore from Exxons ops to Wales. In the gas-to-energy regime, the gas is free. Well, somebody is paying for it and the only suspect left standing is Guyana. That convoluted business about paying for the pipeline though free gas delivered to the Wales plant looks like a pig with plenty Yves Saint Laurent lipstick on it.

This is good old capitalist profitability101. Mr. Brassington and the VP get their gas-to-energy (and other considerations), Exxon makes money; matter over. This is business by another book. It is either the communists version of economics and business machinations; or that made popular by the Sicilian Cosa Nostra. Looking at Mr. Brassingtons numbers informs me that somebody is doing a number on the Guyanese people. From energy blackout to information brownout. Mental whiteout results.

 

 

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• Brassington, gas-to-shore, GHK Lall, Guyana, OP:ED, Wales

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