Coronavirus: A lockdown now may not be the best solution; these evidence-based options may be more viable

Jun 06, 2021 Dr Zulfikar Bux, Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt Medical Centre

Kaieteur News – We are experiencing the worse phase of the pandemic thus far and there are numerous opinions on the best way to address the current situation. One popular suggestion is for a total lockdown of the country with the hope that it will enable us to regain control of the spiralling numbers of infections and deaths. There isn’t a worldwide consensus on lockdowns since evidence has shown that it can be another form of devastation if it is poorly timed and implemented in systems that cannot support it. Given the evidence and our current situation, my concern is that a lockdown may not sufficiently control the spread of COVID-19 to get us ahead before our economy is devastated and more lives are lost. There are however, solutions that science has shown to be effective and may be the best way for us to take our destiny in our own hands and get ahead of COVID-19, instead of locking down and having to play “catch-up” when we re-open.
COVID-19 and its affinity for indoors
A 2021 systematic review of studies on COVID-19 spread, reported a low proportion of global SARS-CoV-2 infections occurring outdoors (<10%) and higher odds of indoor transmission (18.7 times) compared to outdoor transmission. Experts are even convinced that outdoor COVID-19 transmission may be less than 1% and this was demonstrated in Ireland where evidence showed only 0.1% of COVID-19 infections occurring outdoors. In Guyana, we have enough active cases that will facilitate continued indoor spread for a projected period if we were to lockdown as most of the population will have to be confined indoors. My concern is that we may see a rise in cases initially if there is a lockdown and this is a counterproductive move given the alternative options available to us.
Vaccination will take us ahead of the Pandemic
My understanding is that Guyana should have sufficient vaccines for its population before the year is out. Countries with high vaccination rates have been able get ahead of the pandemic and substantially reduce deaths and infections from COVID-19. If we are proactive and get vaccinated ASAP, we can achieve the target of at least 80% vaccination coverage and get ahead of the pandemic before the year is out. Locking down will only stall this window of opportunity and may hamper the vaccination drive sufficiently to leave us in this pandemic for the next year or more. A wise person will look at countries with high vaccination rates like the U.S, U.K, Israel, etc., and realise that they can contribute to a similar situation in Guyana by getting vaccinated ASAP.
Ivermectin works!
A recent meta-analysis of the effectiveness of Ivermectin showed that 95% of the 57 studies reviewed indicated a positive effect when Ivermectin was used to treat COVID-19 patients especially when it was used early. My clinical experience with using Ivermectin to treat COVID-19 patients has also been excellent. It has a strong safety profile and it is a far better option to explore to help control COVID-19 infection and death rates before considering a systemic lockdown.
Avoiding the ‘4Ds’
Last week, I presented the evidence on the effectiveness of COVID-19 control by avoiding the following ‘4Ds’:
• Draft
• Density
• Duration
• Dimension
The data is clear that in closed spaces, one’s risk of acquiring COVID-19 increases with the duration they spend in the space, the smaller (dimension) the space, the more populated (density) the space is and, the lack of airflow and fresh air (draft) in the said space. Locking down will increase our chances of being exposed to the ‘4Ds.’ However, with careful planning, we can carry out our daily lives and prevent a lockdown once we design our interactions in open settings that are larger, less crowded, has good airflow, and we minimise the amount of time we are close to others in the such settings.
In addition to these evidence-based solutions, there is also evidence of the negative mental health, cardiovascular and socio-economic effects of lockdowns that cannot be ignored and must also be taken into consideration given the long-term risks they pose to those affected. So, after reviewing the evidence, I do think that there are risky, adverse options available that can lead us out of the pandemic in a more efficient and effective way than choosing to lockdown. What do you think?

Discover more from Kaieteur News

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Latest News