Coronavirus: January may become our toughest month yet

Dec 27, 2020 Dr Zulfikar Bux, Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt Medical Center

Kaieteur News – As the developed world begins vaccination against the Covid-19 infection, many are beginning to celebrate and relax thinking that the end to the pandemic is near. This is far from reality as the pandemic will not end until there is about 70 to 80 percent vaccination worldwide. In Guyana, we have relaxed too much especially in the month of December where crowds are gathering to celebrate and prepare for the holidays. It worries me when I see this as I am in the frontlines and my experience there scares me as we approach the month of January.
What usually happens in January?
During this month, we tend to see a rise in numbers and severity of sick patients presenting for care. We are normally pushed to the brink with the amount of sick persons that we have to attend to after the holidays. The lavish eating and drinking that comes with the holidays, exacerbates underlying medical conditions and lead to many medical emergencies. To compound this, there are many hospitalized patients from alcohol related illnesses and injuries that spill over into January and occupy bed spaces. Persons with chronic diseases either neglect their condition or their relatives neglect them during the holidays. They subsequently present in larger numbers in January from complications that arise with neglecting their health. As a result of these factors and others, hospitals are stretched to the limit whenever the month of January comes around.
Possible Covid-19 surge
What worries me is the massive gatherings that have started to occur since the month of December started. Whether it may be from shopping, gift sharing, end of year luncheons or the end of year parties, many are taking the chance to have a “release” as the year comes to an end. I have said before that the virus thrives in gatherings and if we are not careful, there is bound to be a surge in Covid-19 cases after the holidays. Unfortunately, this will collide with all the other cases of sick patients that usually present for care in January.
Can our health system cope?
I wish I knew this answer so that I would not have to worry about what will happen in January. The combination of a surge in sick patients with a surge in Covid-19 cases in January can only be disastrous for the health system. If the system is overwhelmed, then patients will not receive optimal care as they will not be able to access usual medical services in an efficient and effective manner. Our number of health workers and the available space to take care of patients is finite and will not be sufficient if there is a surge in Covid-19 and non Covid-19 cases in January. My biggest fear is the scenario where care cannot be provided to patients because we ran out of space or there aren’t enough health workers. This is happening in the first world currently and we are not immune to this possibility. Can you imagine having Covid-19 and you cannot breathe and not being able to access oxygen because all the available oxygen ports are being used by other patients? This is the stark reality of the effects of the pandemic in some countries.
What you can do to help?
What we do and how we behave in the next couple of weeks will determine if we break our health system in January 2021. We are in the middle of a pandemic and we cannot expect to be normal and celebrate the holidays like we usually do in other years. Avoid gatherings, defer luncheons, shop online or do your shopping in spaces that are not crowded. If you are in a surrounding where you cannot be six feet apart from others, leave. Adapt the “no gathering and responsible celebration” attitude for the Holidays and encourage others to do same. If we are successful at this, then January 2021 will be easier for us all and the sick will be able to access the care that they desperately need.

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