How does Granger hope to rule?

Mar 15, 2020 Features / Columnists, Freddie Kissoon

---

This query above was the last question put to me by Leonard Gildarie of Kaieteur Radio before I left the studio last Friday afternoon. I repeat my answer here. It is obvious that Granger knows that his raw power will be circumscribed by two types of dynamics – one internal, the other external.
Let us get the domestic factor out of the way, because Granger will hope to endure that, and believe that over time the acidity of the domestic anger will lessen. The domestic scenario has two dimensions. One is the business community. Even if some of the bigger entrepreneurs for reasons of profits continue to function and entertain relationships with the government, the totality of business attitudes will affect the economy.
The second dimension is more worrying. It is virtually impossible to expect any opposition party that won a manifest victory, yet suffered a coup-like ousting, not to retaliate. The forms of this attitude we can only speculate on, but it is bound to happen. More definitely, the PPP will not participate in parliament and the regional democratic structure.
The virtual life of the PPP is at stake at this time. You don’t need a university education to tell you that right at this moment in time, the PPP is facing its demise. If the APNU+AFC rigged the 2020 election while it was in power, the PPP has to know that it faces the nightmarish question – why are they not going to rig subsequent elections, thereby preserving power for themselves way into the future.
The other side of this question is whether the PPP can remain a viable entity if it accepts the Granger presidency and remains in opposition. Why would young leaders want to continue in the PPP only to give blood, sweat and tears, and to see their political careers stagnated forever in the opposition benches?
By what rational thinking would a young politician want to stay in the PPP’s leadership after March 2020? It is for this compelling reason, the PPP is not going to accept even the most remote relationship with the government, and will fight it, hoping to topple it. I cannot see any other pathway for the PPP after what happened with the 2020 poll.
The incentive of the PPP to confront the Granger presidency lies in the reaction the international community has expressed on the 2020 general elections. All the strategic partners of Guyana the past seventy years will not recognize the Granger regime as legal.
We come now to the external actors. I will briefly repeat a part of my column on the implications of a fraudulent election of Monday, March 9, 2020 with the title, “Granger’s second term: Citing Machiavelli.” I noted the following; “Guyana is a quintessential western hemisphere country whose economy is virtually inseparable from the west. Guyana’s trade and its financial nerve centre are located in the West.”
I come now to the essence of my answer to Gildarie. The leadership of APNU+AFC knows it will not have the latitude to govern effectively. It knows it will not have space to manoeuvre. It knows it will have to make consistent and extensive concessions as the international pressure bites. But it believes that it was better to rig the elections and get into power, because that was the only way it could survive in politics. Let me elaborate.
In the upcoming negotiations for a settlement, the party in power has an advantage, simply because it is in power. It knows it will not be asked to give up power immediately. So while tripartite confabulations between APNU, PPP and the international actors take place, APNU enjoys power by being the government. It can use state power to offer resources to leaders whose career would come to an end in the resulting settlement.
I end with what I believe will be on the agenda in the negotiations. To reform GECOM and the constitution, the ABC/EU countries will ask the PPP to return to parliament. The PPP in turn will ask for one of two things. An interim government, before negotiations begin or alternatively, a specific time log of two years for conclusion of constitutional reform, then immediate fresh elections.
By the time you read this column on Sunday, Granger may be sworn in. But I honestly believe he has lost all credibility in Guyana and the world. His time in office will be a huge psychological burden. I cannot see APNU+AFC governing until 2025. One thing for sure, he will leave absolutely no legacy. He will go down in the history books with far lesser flair than his hero, Forbes Burnham.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper)

---

---