Will Small Parties hold Balance?

Feb 07, 2020 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,

Freddie Kissoon claims that findings he saw of polls conducted by the ruling coalition government and PPP reveal that neither of the two larger parties will obtain a majority of seats in parliament regardless of which one wins the Presidency and forms the government. The findings, he says, show the smaller or mini parties winning seats denying the larger parties a majority of seats. Will the small parties hold the balance of power?
In Guyana they are called small parties but in USA, political scientists like me call them minor parties; the larger ones are called major parties. Minor parties have low recognition and are not well known by voters. Thus, they don’t attract much support or funding but they play an important role in holding the other parties accountable. In Guyana, with its tribalized voting, minor parties get even less support. They depend on racially unaligned voters and/or those who are pissed off with the two major parties and or their leadership. There are significant numbers of those in Guyana totaling some 8% as per recent voter surveys.
If the minor parties get enough voter support or win seats, then for sure they will deny the two major parties a parliamentary majority. That could change the politics of the country forever by holding the balance of power. It could lead to good, responsible governance and enrichment of the population rather than politicians enriching themselves.
The AFC was supposed to be the party that held the balance of power holding both major parties accountable and ending corruption and abuse of office. But it betrayed this principle by falling for the trappings of office. It has lost support. Now the role of balance of power has to be played by one or more of the seven minor parties in the electoral fray. Can they win at least a top up seat each or enough votes in a geographic area to deny one of the larger parties a seat? People are skeptical of minor parties in light of what AFC did to them.
Tracking surveys I conducted, including an ongoing one, show the minor parties capturing votes but not all of them are attracting enough votes for a seat. Based on projections, it would require some 6,500 votes or about 1.5% of total votes cast to get a seat. Based on findings of the opinion poll, only four parties show signs of attracting enough votes for a seat. The combined support of the remaining three parties would come close to a seat. It would have been wise for them to combine their lists to increase the prospect of a seat or more. The other four parties are not even certain of a seat because the election is increasingly becoming racially polarized with voters falling into one camp or the other base on ethnic or party affiliation.
If the minor parties succeed in winning one or more seats, then it is conceivably possible to have a hung parliament and that party holding a balance of power. The more seats the minor parties win, the greater the prospect of a hung parliament or their holding the balance of power. Holding a balance of power will force the major parties to co-operate, share power, and tame racism. In addition, it will help to reduce corruption.
Yours truly,
Dr. Vishnu Bisram

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