Pay Heed to Cadres and Other Polls

Jul 10, 2019 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,

Because I am a pollster who has been conducting opinion surveys since the late 1980s, several individuals queried my views of “the leaked findings” of the Cadres poll on popularity of political leadership in Guyana.
I have not seen the poll’s findings although someone promised to send a summary to me. Thus, I cannot comment on the findings, but I can offer some remarks on Cadres, whose work is known to me, as I have been conducting similar polling exercises under NACTA over the last three decades.
Cadres has a good reputation with experience conducting opinion polls in several Caribbean societies. Thus, its findings of surveys should not be dismissed or ignored. In fact, the findings of no opinion poll should be dismissed.
The findings of polls are an estimated amount of support of parties or candidates and the number changes over time. Politicians and political parties should pay heed to the findings of all polls and tailor their election campaign messages accordingly, in order to maximize their voter support.
Parties should address concerns raised in findings of all surveys, because all provide critical data or information useful to campaign. This will help to shape and guide their campaign to increase support.
It is public knowledge APNU-AFC commissioned polls and is using the data to drive its election campaigns. The coalition has an estimate of its popular support, whereas the support of the opposition parties is not known. The public or opposition parties should not dismiss the Cadres polls but take them seriously. The Cadres poll reported its findings; if the public or other parties have different findings then these should also be released to counter the claims of the coalition.
There being no other public polls, we must accept Cadres’ findings that puts the coalition in the lead in the coming elections. I also conducted a poll last week and am in a position to evaluate findings of Cadres and other polls. I have projected support of the parties and favourability ratings of the potential Presidential nominees. The findings show no major surprises.
I have no reason to question the findings of Cadres, although I don’t know the numbers. I have known of Cadres just after the start of the new millennium. The polling institute is managed by a one-person team in Peter Wickham of Barbados, which is also home of the polling body.
Like NACTA, Cadres conducts opinion polls throughout the Caribbean. Wickham and I did polls in several Caribbean societies for the same election. I routinely conduct surveys in Guyana several times a year. Thus, I am in a position to evaluate Cadres’ findings in Guyana relative to mine. Cadres has a very good track record. Politicians tend to pay heed to its findings. So Guyanese politicians should not dismiss its findings and take measures to improve their standing.
If findings of polls differ, how does one know which one is right or better? It is a subjective matter based on one’s faith in the work of the pollster. If the polls show similar findings, then they are validated. Polls conducted around the same time should have similar findings. I conducted a poll last week. Cadres’ was carried out last February. The Cadres poll needs to be updated to reflect current time. There is no reason to question its validity or findings, even if five months old.
Any party that ignores Cadres or any other poll does so to its own detriment. There could be a repeat of 2011 and 2015.
Yours truly,
Dr Vishnu Bisram (Political Scientist)

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