Our falling population: Shouldn’t we be concerned about this?

Jul 30, 2017 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,

The national census published by the Bureau of Statistics about a year ago has a lot of interesting information pertaining to where the nation stands at this time. The census is taken in countries across the world every ten years, gathering house-to-house information to update population information and provide a baseline for estimates during the intervening years.

The Guyana census was taken by the Bureau of Statistics in 2012. The information coming out of the census is a vital input to planning and investment decision-making in both the private and public sectors.

Learning the actual size of the population from the census, we don’t have to go guessing and speculating. As of 2012, the Guyana population was 746,955. This number indicates that our population has not just been stagnant, but has actually been declining. It has fallen from 759,566 in 1980, a drop of 12,611 in 32 years.

But a population is a dynamic thing, so it’s not enough to compare the numbers at two points in time. The actual loss is even higher if we compared the present population to what it would have been if the population was growing normally.

As illustrated in figure 1, if we assume a conservative population growth rate of one percent per year since 1980, the population would have been 1,014,358 by 2012, so the actual population loss is more like 300,000 over that period.

Figure 1. A Comparison of Guyana’s Projected and Actual Population Growth Trends, 1980-2012

This level of population loss is a serious reflection on the state of the country. For every living organism, whether it’s an animal, plant or bug, its first objective is survival, and survival and population growth go together. The falling population, combined with our present state of poverty as a country, represents in my opinion, the greatest threat to national sovereignty and survival as a nation.

It should be mentioned that the Guyana population has shown strange fluctuation since 1980 (see figure 2). Based on census data published by the Guyana Bureau of Statistics, the population fell drastically to 723,671 in 1991, recovered markedly to 751,223 by 2002, before dropping again between 2002 and 2012. This wide range of population fluctuation is difficult to understand – it would be interesting to get a full explanation from the Bureau of what’s behind it.

Figure 2. Guyana’s Fluctuating Population Growth

As for the overall trend of decline in the population, undoubtedly, our high rate of emigration is a major factor. It’s unfortunate that the Bureau does not (to my knowledge) show the components of the population growth, but indications are that Guyana continues to have a healthy rate of natural increase.

Even though it has fallen drastically over the decades, our fertility rate is relatively high. The fertility rate is a measure of the number of children on average that each woman would be expected to bear over their child-bearing years. It is linked to the birth rate, which is an important factor going into the determination of the rate of natural increase in the population.

Obviously, another major factor is the death rate. In Guyana, the national fertility rate in 2012 was 2.8, down from 5.8 in 1960 (alas, don’t be put off by the .8 child – it’s just an average). Guyana’s fertility rate is higher than the world average for 2015 (2.45) and Haiti (3.0) is the only country in CARICOM with a higher rate. Although I don’t have ready access to emigration figures, it’s a reasonable guess that this is what makes the difference.

The tragedy of Guyana’s high emigration rate goes beyond the numbers. The high number of people leaving the country over the years, represents a huge human resource loss, when consideration is given to the qualifications and training that they have taken with them. In fact, when it comes to international comparisons, Guyana has led the world in the brain drain category (and suicide), with close to 90 percent of tertiary level graduates emigrating. The high level of emigration, whether skilled or unskilled, is a glaring indicator of Guyana’s failure as a nation to provide hope and confidence among its citizens of being able to fulfill their aspirations.

Desmond Thomas, PhD

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