Guyana’s 2022 Census figures demand independent scrutiny

Jan 17, 2026 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

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(Kaieteur News) – The recently released preliminary report of Guyana’s 2022 Population and Housing Census presents a demographic picture that, on the surface, signals a dramatic national resurgence. The population has leapt from 746,955 in 2012 to 878,674—an increase of 131,719 people, or 17.63%.

More startling, however, is the claimed surge in the locally-born Guyanese population by approximately 114,165 individuals, a 15.48% growth over the decade. While the government may hail this as a sign of thriving national vitality, a sober examination of Guyana’s recent demographic history and migration patterns renders this figure not just surprising, but deeply questionable. It clashes with established pre-2012 trends and the observable realities of mass emigration and regional immigration, raising serious doubts that necessitate an independent, expert-led audit of the 2022 census data.

For decades prior to 2012, Guyana’s demographic story was one of stagnation and outflow. The period between the 2002 and 2012 censuses recorded a near-zero average annual population growth rate of -0.06%. This was not due to a low birth rate alone but was overwhelmingly driven by sustained and significant emigration. Generations of Guyanese, seeking economic opportunity and stability, left for the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean.

The U.S. alone has been a primary destination; data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey consistently shows hundreds of thousands of Guyanese-born individuals residing in the United States, with a steady flow continuing through the 2010s. This exodus created a scenario where natural increase (births minus deaths) was largely offset or negated by net outward migration, leading to the flat population curve observed up to 2012.

On average some 5,000 persons emigrated permanently  to the United States. This means that to that country alone, some 50,000 persons would have emigrated legally and permanently during the period 2012 to 2022. To this you can add another 10,000 who emigrated permanently to Canada or self-sponsored to that country.

It is within this context that the reported 15.48% explosion in the local-born population becomes difficult to reconcile. Did the fundamental drivers of Guyanese migration—economic push factors—suddenly and completely reverse between 2012 and 2022?

The evidence suggests otherwise. While Guyana’s economic fortunes began to change with the advent of oil production post-2019, the transformative effects on widespread job creation and living standards were nascent and not yet felt nationwide by 2022. Furthermore, the socio-political and economic crisis in neighbouring Venezuela, intensifying from around 2015, triggered a massive influx of migrants into Guyana, not an end to emigration from it.

This brings us to the second pole of doubt: the suspect handling of migrant numbers in the census. The report itself admits the foreign-born population is “understated due to reluctance… and undocumented migration.” It records only 12,654 Venezuelans, a figure starkly contradicted by UN estimates of approximately 40,545 by mid-2024. Similarly, significant but unquantified communities of Cuban and Brazilian migrants are known to reside in the country. If the census missed a large portion of these immigrants, then the overall population growth attributed to “locals” is artificially inflated. The methodology for adjusting “no-contact” households appears to have been applied inconsistently, using satellite estimation in coastal regions but not in the hinterlands where many migrants may reside. This technical shortcoming likely led to a significant undercount of the foreign-born, thereby misallocating their numbers into the “local” category.

A more plausible demographic narrative for 2012-2022 is not a miraculous 15% growth in locals, but perhaps slowed, emigration of Guyanese citizens, offset and surpassed by a much larger-than-reported influx of immigrants, primarily from Venezuela and  Cuba.

The reported local growth of 114,165 seems inconceivable when weighed against the persistent emigration trends and the limited time for a new, large generation of “oil babies” to have been born and counted.

Given these profound discrepancies and their implications, the government’s data cannot be accepted at face value. The stakes are too high. There should be an immediate commissioning of an independent, international demographic assessment of the 2022 census. This panel, comprising experts from the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), and renowned statistical institutes, must be granted full access to the raw data, methodologies, and adjustment models.

Their mandate should be to: 1.  Audit the methodology for counting and adjusting for migrants and “no-contact” households. 2.  Reconcile census figures with independent migration data from destination countries like the U.S. 3.  Cross-validate population estimates with other administrative data (birth registries, school enrollment, housing permits). 4.  Provide a revised, evidence-based estimate of the resident population, disaggregated by birth origin.

A nation planning its future on the foundation of an oil-rich economy deserves a census it can trust. Blind acceptance of these incongruous numbers does a disservice to honest planning and public accountability. Only through transparent, independent validation can Guyana build its future on a foundation of facts, not fictions.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)

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• census, Housing Census, Peeping Tom, scrutiny

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