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Using 2012 ethnic data will yield flawed projection for 2025
Dear Editor,
Kaieteur News – Geoffrey Da Silva explains how the PPP can get 36 seats in 2025 using data from the 2020 general elections (Jul 30). It is doable but not easy, as he stated. It is a well written and interesting academic analysis and projection. Da Silva is commended for this evaluation and assessment. But there is a flaw in using ethic data of 2012. And even the results of 2020 elections are problematic. But that is all the public data that is available for objective analyses.
Da Silva utilizes ethnic data from 2012 and assumes racial proportional voting in 2020 and projects same for 2025. Without reliable, objective field data from surveys or other means, the assumption can be very problematic. There was cross racial voting in 2020 and in elections of 2015 and 2011. In 2011 and 2015, Indians and Amerindians crossed over to the opposition. In 2020, Indians returned to their party. Many Amerindians also returned to the PPP in 2020. Are they migrating?
The latest 2022/23 census is not out (in the public domain anyway). It is believed that the ethnic composition of the population would have changed. Therefore, using the 2012 proportional ethnic data for 2025, if they are not the same in the 2023 census, will lead to an erroneous conclusion.
It is impossible that all the groups have maintained the same ethnic composition in the population 13 years later and will vote the same way proportionally as in the 2012 census and or as they did in 2020. The voting trend in 2025 has changed significantly from earlier elections. One certainty from personal (NACTA) field data (up to this week) is PPP has made significant gains from among Africans and Mixed since 2020 and since the local elections of 2023. Anyone not accepting that fact is not being realistic and will come up with flawed conclusions.
Unless one is doing field work or polling, one cannot get a fair or good estimate of the voting trend of each ethnic group and the support of the political parties. It is reliably informed that the PPP has commissioned tracking polls; it knows its voting support, its strength and weaknesses and has taken measures to address problems in support obtained from polling. This writer has also been doing an independent tracking survey. Polling is very costly and few parties can afford cost of a poll much less tracking surveys. The AFC and APNU also did polls although not currently.
There was an independent poll conducted by a business group last year. And another independent poll was also conducted earlier this year by an American group. A new party also conducted a poll. The PPP is flush with funds and can afford tracking surveys. The findings of all polls were not made public and not accessible to this writer except for generalities and which party leading. All polls conducted around the same time will have similar findings; that is a fact of polling.
It is not difficult to know which party is in the lead and which will win and how many seats it is likely to win. The number of seats each party wins may be difficult to project unless obtained from polls. And even so, many voters did not reveal choice and some are fearful of saying how they will vote. All the parties know their support if their polls were objectively conducted. All polls, except one, put the PPP in the lead. But anything is possible in the next four weeks till voting day.
Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram
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