COVID-19: Omicron 2 may be the variant with us when we transition into endemicity

Feb 27, 2022 Dr Zulfikar Bux, Features / Columnists

By Dr. Zulfikar Bux
Emergency Medicine Specialist

Kaieteur News – While it’s still early to make a final conclusion, it does appear that we may be heading out of the pandemic and will slowly transition into an endemic over the next couple of months. An endemic basically means that there is more predictability to the virus behaviour that allows for more stability to living when compared to the pandemic. There is a tendency for seasonal and geographical flare ups of infections during an endemic. The seasonal flu is an example of an endemic virus which infects many and cause deaths, but in a more seasonal and predictable manner. The Omicron BA.1. variant (Omicron 1) has infected unprecedented numbers worldwide leading to high population immunity. However, the Omicron BA.2. variant (Omicron 2) is slowly creeping up and seems to be slowly replacing Omicron 1.

What do we know about Omicron 2?
When the Omicron variant was formed, it divided into subvariants with Omicron 1 and 2 being the common variants of concern to us. Omicron 1 took off faster and is responsible for the Omicron wave the world was and is still facing. However, recent data on Omicron 2 shows that it is now in 18 countries and accounts for 35 percent of all new cases that have been sequenced worldwide. Data from Denmark where Omicron 2 is the dominant form, suggests that it is 30 percent more transmissible than Omicron 1. However, it doesn’t appear to be more deadly and does not cause more hospitalisations.

Will Omicron 2 cause a second Omicron wave?
For Omicron 2 to cause a new wave, it must have the ability to re-infect those that were infected with Omicron 1 which is the majority of the world’s population. However, data from Denmark and UK showed extremely low re-infection rates with Omicron 2. Of the small number that was re-infected, there were no symptoms or mild and no one was hospitalised or died. So, based on the data so far, it is highly unlikely that Omicron 2 will cause a second Omicron wave.

Is Omicron 2 in Guyana?
We have not been testing for variants here so there is no definite answer to this question. However, based on scientific trends, it does appear that our recent experience was from the Omicron 1 wave. We are now coming to the end of the wave and the pattern is suggestive of Omicron 1 still being the dominant and possibly the only variant here. If or when Omicron 2 arrives, there may be a slight increase in case numbers. Based on the available evidence, this slight increase should not be significant because of our high immunity levels (from vaccination and previous infection) and it should not be a burden on the system.

What to expect in the coming months?
It appears likely that Omicron 2 will slowly take over from Omicron 1 as the dominant form of the virus. It will however spread slower because of the lower number of persons (who were not infected by Omicron 1) available for it to infect. In addition, a decent portion of these persons will have vaccine immunity so the threat of serious infection and hospitalisation should remain low. Therefore, as March comes, we should see infection rates consistently be in double and even single digits. Hospitalisations should continue to drop and stabilise to non-threatening levels. In the months after, there may be a little uptick in infections as Omicron 2 arrives but not at concerning levels.
I feel optimistic that the SARS-CoV 2 virus is running out of curveballs to throw at us and its threat to us is becoming more predictable. With this predictability, comes endemicity, which is the light at the end of the tunnel that we have all been waiting so long to see.

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