Speculating on political partnership factors when no party is a clearly projected winner

Jan 09, 2011 Letters

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Dear Editor,
My New Year’s wish for Guyana is that, God and government willing, just over three-quarter of a million Guyanese at home will wake up on Election Day with one president and go back to bed with a different one; a better one.
President Bharrat Jagdeo, who declared he is not seeking a third term, must be replaced and not even be allowed to ‘pull a Putin’.
Not that replacing the PPP should be treated as a fait accompli or done deal, because no matter what major negatives are known of the Caribbean’s most criminally corrupt and heavy-handed government, the ruling party continues to enjoy the die-hard support of thousands.
Maybe it is a race thing or a cronyism thing, but it is what it is. Still, many who once supported the supposedly populist PPP and even its political grandstanding and showboating President have since distanced themselves from both the party and the President for moving the party away from the original vision and mission of the late Dr. Cheddi Jagan for a lean, clean government of the economically downtrodden.
They have essentially accused this government of turning the single most important democratic gain of the party and nation in 1992 into personal gains of a chosen few over the last dozen years.
As a result, they see this year’s election as something of a make or break to return the PPP to its original calling.
These former PPP supporters, among them workers in the sugar belt, now also share a common vision with many others who never supported the PPP or its President in wanting to protect Guyana from experiencing any further erosion of constitutional order and the rule of law under an out of control president..
However, that’s where their commonality ends, because they do not share any history of working or friendly relations pursuing the same goal.
The goal of whoever is seeking to play the lead role in wresting power from the PPP, therefore, is to try and get former PPP supporters and longstanding non-PPP folks onto the same page so they can work from the same script to achieve the same result: regime change in 2011.
If this uniting aspect cannot be accomplished, then it won’t be easy wresting power from the PPP. So the PNCR and AFC, the two other parliamentary parties with any type of voter appeal, have their work cut.
Meanwhile, one school of political logic says that since no individual opposition party can unseat the PPP, then there must be a grand coalition or partnership and a consensus presidential candidate going forward.
Otherwise, if the PPP does not pull enough votes to form a government, then either it turns to the opposition for help in forming a coalition government or if all opposition parties have the votes, they can form the government. At that point, they may or may not include the PPP in some sort of shred governance arrangement.
The not so funny thing is that there are actually persons in the PPP  the PNCR, the WPA, the AFC and even civic society, who firmly believe shared governance, featuring parliamentary parties and civic society groups, is the only solution to Guyana’s dilemma.
Nevertheless, what is mildly funny is that while shared governance advocates see this route as the beacon for Guyana’s future, not one of these advocates has so far delivered up for scrutiny a pragmatic concept of how the mechanics of such a system of governance will work.
So, pardon me for saying that interesting times are ahead for political parties and politicians in the run-up to the 2011 elections…if they are held, but two quick but timely observations are worth mentioning before I close.
First, if elections are held, this year’s will not be about the bogeyman PNCR as the enemy of the PPP or Indians. This title has fallen to the President whose leadership style has estranged many PPP supporters.
Second, this is the first time in Guyana’s politics we are starting an election year with no clear cut winner being projected.
While many hypothetical partnership scenarios are being bandied about and debates rage about who from the PPP, PNCR or AFC would make a better president than the incumbent, this open season for rampant speculation could well come down to partnerships and coalitions as a means to unseat the PPP.
Tomorrow, I want to continue by addressing a new speculation that says, apart from possible coalitions or partnerships between and among parties and groups, the elections can also come down to a two-man partnership featuring President Bharrat Jagdeo and PNCR Leader Mr. Robert Corbin.
In politics, never rule anything in or out.
Emile Mervin

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