NACTA’s pre and exit polls were different

Jan 31, 2010 Letters

Dear Editor,
I am responding to Mr. Freddie Kissoon’s letter captioned “Pollster Got it Wrong” (Kaieteur News January 27) which did not quote Mr. Vishnu Bisram’s final poll numbers on last Sunday’s (24-01-10) UNC elections in Trinidad.
Firstly, I applaud Mr. Bisram for keeping us informed about the nation’s views on the UNC elections because no other pollster did any polls. Having regards to what I received from NACTA’s press releases, I would say he got it right in calling the winner but he was also way off in his pre-election projection. The pre and post election surveys were different. I think he needs to explain the discrepancy given the enormous respect he commands internationally.
Mr. Bisram’s final pre-election poll identified Ms. Kamla Persad Bissessar as the winner but he was way off mark compared with the actual outcome. And while the exit poll did not give a percentage of her support, he stated on live radio and TV long before the counting trickled in that it would be a landslide victory. One of Bisram’s early polls in late December had Bissessar winning by a landslide but the numbers were not consistent to the end.
Because the print media has deadlines, it is understandable that the final poll released Saturday night was not published in Sunday’s newspapers. The numbers quoted by Mr. Kissoon of Basdeo Panday at 38%, Ramesh Maharaj at 27%, and Bissessar at 23% were not final. Mr. Kissoon failed to mention the several caveats (like dual membership, percentage turnout, etc.) attached to those numbers thereby misleading leaders.
In the final poll, Mr. Bisram had Bissessar at 46% with Panday at 31% and Maharaj at 21%. Although the poll identified Bissessar as winning, it was off target. Mr. Bisram did, however, say Bissessar was ahead or tied in all of the 39 constituencies except one. She won all constituencies.
The poll also said Bissessar’s margin of victory would be higher if supporters of another party, COP, were allowed to vote. The UNC membership committee said COP members would not vote. But on the day of voting, the election committee allowed everyone to vote (regardless of their membership in COP) and therefore the landslide for Bissessar which was correctly captured by the exit poll’s findings.
There were countless irregularities pertaining to voting and thousands of people, who were financial members, were turned away from the voting booths. In fact, Mr. Panday announced in a press conference that thousands of voting cards were not delivered and accused an employee of Bissessar of sabotaging the election. She was in charge of the membership cards before she took a leave of absence to work for Bissessar during the campaign. No one knows how the discrepancies, COP members, and those who were denied the vote affected the outcome.
Therefore, it is difficult to conclusively say Bisram was off target or got it wrong in the pre-election.
Nevertheless, one can make the case that Bisram’s pre-election survey was off target and perhaps he needs to offer an explanation of what went wrong. But he was vindicated in his exit poll as revealed on the CNC 3 TV programme hosted by Ken Ali and Francesca Hawkins Sunday (24-01-10) evening.
Sabrina Jagmohan

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