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Guyana’s oil boom among factors behind Goldman Sachs’ lower 2027 crude price forecast
June 12 (Reuters) – Guyana’s rapidly expanding oil production is among the factors expected to contribute to lower global crude prices in the coming years, according to a new forecast from Goldman Sachs, which on Thursday reduced its average Brent crude price outlook for 2027 to US$80 per barrel. The bank cited rising supplies from Guyana and other major producers, coupled with weakening demand, particularly from China.
“We assume that just over 10% of the demand weakness persists as China’s shift to alternatives (e.g. EVs) accelerates,” Goldman said in a note.
The bank also said it continues to expect Brent to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, noting that the impact of a longer disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has so far been offset by a smaller-than-expected supply shortfall.
While the Hormuz disruption initially cut Middle East liquids production sharply, Goldman said the global deficit in the second quarter was more limited, estimated at 5 to 6 million barrels per day, as weaker demand and pre-existing oversupply cushioned the shock.
“We now assume that oil exports from Gulf producers normalize by late August (vs. by late June prior), which may be achieved with a rise in Hormuz flows to 70% of pre-war levels given current redirections,” the bank said.
Goldman highlighted upside risks to prices, stating that in an adverse scenario, Brent could average just above $110 in late 2026 if export disruptions persist longer. A more severe scenario sees prices hitting $140 in 2027 if Hormuz disruptions extend through the year.
On the downside, a faster normalisation in supply and weaker demand could push prices down to around $70 in late 2026 and $60 in 2027.
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