ECLAC report puts Guyana as region’s top export performer

Nov 20, 2025 News

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…but warns of deep structural vulnerabilities

(Kaieteur News) – A new report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has placed Guyana at the very top of the region’s export performance rankings for 2025, projecting the highest growth in the value of goods exports among all 33 countries assessed.

According to Figure 1 of the ECLAC International Trade Outlook 2025, Guyana leads the region with the most robust projected increase in merchandise export value, outpacing heavyweights like Brazil, Mexico, Chile, and Colombia. The surge is driven overwhelmingly by crude oil, which continues to dominate Guyana’s export profile and overshadow every other sector.

The report however, underscores Guyana’s dependence on a single commodity places it among the most vulnerable economies in the hemisphere at a time when global trade is being reshaped by political tension, tariff battles, and shifting alliances. ECLAC’s analysis of sectoral export trends shows mining and oil outperforming agriculture and manufacturing across the hemisphere for 2025.

Guyana’s position within that pattern is extreme. The country’s export growth is almost entirely concentrated in oil, leaving it exposed to the same volatility, price risks, and geopolitical pressures that have long destabilised other resource-dependent nations, the report pointed out.  The report further highlights that Latin America’s exports to the United States still the world’s largest consumer market are undergoing strain because of Washington’s 2025 tariff shifts. Although many South American countries face relatively low U.S. tariff rates due to the nature

Figure 3 of the ECLAC report shows that only 15% of Guyana’s total goods exports went to the United States in 2024, placing it among the South American countries least dependent on the U.S. market. On the surface, this cushions Guyana from U.S. tariff swings, but also signals something more worrisome: Guyana lacks diversified markets and is overwhelmingly tied to oil shipments into global commodity markets rather than structured bilateral trade relationships.

The report stresses that countries with weakly developed manufacturing bases, low technological capacity, and limited integration into value chains are at severe risk in today’s era of “weaponised interdependence”—a term ECLAC uses to describe the geopolitical use of trade as leverage. In its assessment of advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-technology exports, ECLAC paints a stark picture. Mexico dominates high-tech manufacturing exports with 85% of the region’s share; Brazil leads modern services with 33%. Costa Rica, Uruguay, Chile, Argentina, and even Panama appear prominently in the exports of high-skill, high-value sectors. Guyana does not appear anywhere in these categories.

The report repeatedly warns that Latin American and Caribbean countries that fail to develop technological capacity, skilled human capital, and institutional strength will be locked out of the most dynamic sectors of global trade. For Guyana, where oil revenues now drown out every other economic signal the danger is clear: without structural transformation, the country risks cementing itself as a mono-export economy with limited resilience.

Diversify trade relations 

Meanwhile, the report noted that given the shift in United States trade policy this year, governments in the region should diversify their trade relations and strengthen regional integration. In its three chapters, the document details the recent evolution of the region’s trade along with projections, analysing in particular the impact that the new United States trade policy has had on the region’s countries. It also analyzes the challenge of increasing the technology intensity and advanced human capital intensity of goods and services exports from Latin America and the Caribbean.

According to the document, as a result of the various tariff hikes implemented by the United States since February 2025, Latin American and Caribbean countries face, on average, an effective tariff rate of around 10% in that country, which is 7 percentage points lower than the average imposed globally. The highest average tariff is faced by Brazil (33%), followed by Uruguay (20%) and Nicaragua (18%). Mexico is subject to an average effective tariff of 8%, since the majority of its exports enter tariff-free, either because they benefit from the Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA) or because they are exempted from the hikes.

Overall, the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean face lower tariffs in the United States than several of that country’s main trading partners, particularly from Asia. This situation creates opportunities for trade diversion in favor of the region’s exports, in sectors such as clothing, medical devices and agro-industry, ECLAC indicates.

Meanwhile, there is evidence that the uncertainty generated by the changes in U.S. trade policy is affecting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows to the region, especially in sectors that account for a large share of exports to that market, the report states. In the first half of 2025, FDI project announcements in the region totaled $31.374 billion dollars, down 53% from the same period in 2024 and 37% lower than the 2015-2024 average.

To address this situation, ECLAC recommends that the region’s countries deepen their trade relations with partners such as China, the European Union, India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, and the African Continental Free Trade Area. In addition, it recommends strengthening regional integration in areas such as infrastructure, trade facilitation and regulatory convergence.

Regional trade performance in 2025

The International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 report indicates that the value of regional goods exports from Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 5% in 2025, similar to the increase seen in 2024 (4.5%). This projected expansion is attributed to a 4% increase in the volume exported and a 1% increase in prices.

Meanwhile, the region’s imports are seen rising by 6%, as a result of a 7% increase in volume and a 1% decline in prices.  Among the region’s main trading partners, China is expected to account for the biggest export increase by value in 2025, with regional shipments to that country rising by 7%, due mainly to growth in the sales of meat and soybeans as well as higher prices for minerals such as copper. Exports to the European Union are seen growing by 6%, and those to the United States by 5%.

With regard to intraregional trade, it is expected to grow by around 1%. Because extraregional shipments are forecast to experience more dynamic growth than those within the region, the intraregional trade ratio is seen declining slightly, from 14% to 13%. Meanwhile, it is estimated that the value of regional services exports in 2025 will rise by 8%, which is one percentage point below the growth registered in 2024. Despite this, these exports continue to outpace goods exports in value terms.

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• ECLAC, export, Guyana, Report

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