The impact of high cost-of-living on voting trends?

Jun 17, 2025 Letters

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Dear Editor,

Kaieteur News – How will the state of the economy, economic growth and distribution of oil wealth and the relatively high cost-of-living influence voting. It is a very important question for which there is no straightforward or simple answer. And if the economy is a critical determining factor in voting, which party will offer better management of the economy, the rising cost of goods as well as of doing business for which the public and the business community have been complaining? In 1992, then Governor Bill Clinton’s famous, “It is the economy stupid” toppled George Bush Sr.  But a similar message did not work in Guyana in 1992 when the economy was in dire straight between 1980 to 1992. Race determined voting behaviour and still does. Although they complain about the economy, voters have viewed the economy and politics through party partisan lens, siding with or defending their party.

In a non-ethnic polarized and true democracy like USA, Canada, USA, Barbados, Jamaica, Grenada, etc., the economy will define the outcome of an election as it did in countless elections. In Guyana, ethnicity defines or influences how people vote as it did since 1957. People are accustomed with the ‘two ethnic party’ system – Indian or African (Mixed). And that is how the bulk of the population, some 85%, vote. The Indians vote to keep out the Africans (and Mixed) and vice versa. But in the 2025 election, with no ethnic group having a majority, and a party needing to get cross racial support, the outcome is difficult to assess. The parties will have to compete for cross over racial votes to win government. The Amerindians can hold the balance of power if they vote strategically. And they fare the worse in terms of the economy; cost-of-living in interior Amerindian communities (regions 1, 7, 8, 9) is between two to four times that in say Georgetown. Will the Indigenous people have a leader or party to champion their interests and will they vote strategically? Will the native people make demands on the political parties for equity of resources and targeted development in their communities? Will the native people seek a fair share of the oil revenues in exchange for their vote?

In terms of oil wealth, there are complaints nationwide that it is not shared equitably. Some communities or areas and contractors benefit more than others in terms of infrastructure and distribution of State contracts. A small number of contractors receive the bulk of the revenues. The Chinese get more State contracts than Americans and local Guyanese.  Guyanese also complain about the Chinese presence in lumbering, mining, sand pitting, construction, and transportation sectors.

The state of the economy in the past did not influence voting. Corruption and bad governance influenced voting in 2011, 2015, and 2020 resulting in change. Could they be factors in this election? People are complaining about the state of the economy. The economy is growing rapidly and by record numbers. But not everyone is benefiting proportionally. A small group is sapping up the wealth; over half the population complain they are not benefiting much. Many simply cannot afford to live. Inflation is eating away at peoples’ income and savings. Over half the population barely survives, meaning can afford three decent meals. Many barely eat two meals and some just manage to get by with one meal. But will the economy influence voting?

How the economy is viewed depends on politics. Many say the economy under the previous regime was worse.  There is no question that the economy is better now than under any other time. Supporters of another party say things are really bad now. So voters are driven by partisan dispositions, which then calls into question the significance of the economy in assessing electoral behaviour in a tribalized society as Guyana. Race largely determines voting behaviour. Uninformed voters don’t always look at the economy as a whole but vote by tradition. Informed or swing voters may look at a few key indicators to assess the economy’s health. But they are a small group. And which party will they choose to manage the economy since the choices are very small.

Any ‘third party’ led by a credible candidate that runs on Clinton’s message of state of economy could influence voters. They have been complaining about the rising price of goods, but no party has championed that issue to win them over. Also, any party that makes a case that Guyana should strengthen ties to USA, even of making Guyana part of America, will win several seats. Most Guyanese want to migrate to USA to live the life of their brethren in America and for a better future.

Yours truly,

Dr. Vishnu Bisram

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• cost-of-living, economic growth, Letters, oil wealth, Vishnu Bisram

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