Tariffs – American game, American imagination 

Apr 04, 2025 Features / Columnists, The GHK Lall Column

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Hard Truths…

By GHK Lall

 Kaieteur News- Tariffs.  Trump tariffs, to be precise.  The Irfaan Ali government says it is engaging.  The AFC is saying that a national response is vital.  I am saying that this development involving tariffs is frightening.

Eight percent would have been a sharp blow.  Half of that 38% tariff unleashed against Guyana would be one that is crippling.  Hence, 38% possess all the elements of low blows.  How did the US arrive at its 76% charge from Guyana, when it follows the regional levels in place?  But T&T and Jamaica, and the others are to be charged 10% only on their exports.  The damage waiting to take shape is daunting.  I am thinking of the effect on Guyana’s exporters to the US.  Prices will have to be cut to be competitive in the US market.  That would dent the prospects of local exporters, maybe even make some of them unprofitable.  This throws some sand in Guyana’s economic engine now revving at increasing speeds.

Of particular note is that Guyana stands out like a deformity in comparison to the tariffs levied on other countries in the region.  The highest percentage.  What happened to the special friendship between the US and Guyana that both President Ali and Secretary Rubio spoke so highly about?  To which dark, forgotten corner was that so swiftly pushed?  The Guyana Government could not have been more open, more giving, to America, as was stated and restated during the neon glow of Secretary Rubio’s visit.  A visit from a US Secretary of State has its prestige about it; and also, its discussions leading to the understandings sealed.  That was my expectation, until this tariff terror was let loose, like some angry and hungry dog, to mangle and devour all in front of it.  If this 38% tariff stays as is, or too close to that number, let there be no mistake about it, Guyana will be severely mangled.

I take another tack.  In my book, this 38% tariff is the equivalent of sanctions being applied on this country.  Guyana is not doing anything that goes against the interests of America.   Friends do not do such things to friends.  Not by means of a stiff 38% tariff lash to the face.

The Americans are talking about the existence of trade barriers erected by Guyana.  What trade barriers impact Uncle Sam’s business?  Guyana imports much of its high-priced items, such as machinery, from the East, not the US.  Something is not adding up.  Whatever the trade barriers on this side of the Atlantic, Guyana is ready, will be zealous in pulling them down.  I can guarantee that one.  If only to appease the angry deity in the White House.  If only to furnish real proof of the preferential treatment of which Excellency spoke so well about in his meeting with Marco Rubio.  If only to level what I believe is more in the nature of a playing field imagined by the Americans.  On the other hand, if the red tape of Guyana’s cumbersome bureaucracy (and its corruption) is what is meant by trade barriers, that one I can understand.  Frankly, my calculation was that if there was going to be any tariff imposed on Guyana (the remotest of remote possibilities), then it was going to be more on the nuisance side.  That is, something that has to be lived with, nothing that could not be managed fairly comfortably.

Uncritically, I am at a loss to ascertain how any level of tariff levied on Guyana is going to help Make America Great Again.  However, 38% does have many teeth to it, which prompts the question about: What are the true objectives of America in this instance?  If one of those is to bring Guyana to its knees, then there is a solid chance of success.  Perhaps, it is to render this country even more subservient to American dictates, and then make no bones about running all over it.  An unlikely scenario is that the tariff could have the unintended effect of pushing the Government of Guyana to reconsider its weakening China posture.  Remember I said unlikely, and for good reason.  There is the power equation to be considered in the 2025 elections year.  The US holds all the cards, and the PPP Government is too far gone to turn back now, backed itself into a corner.  So, what are the choices before the government?  Make a good show of putting up a spirited front against this American tariff, stands as one.  It is good for public consumption.  Or throw in the towel, so as not to get on the wrong side of the White House, while feigning a fight.

The Ali-Jagdeo regime has gotten better at these masquerades.  Donald Trump just showed his hand.  It is a mailed fist.  Will he be open to reason, given the Guyana-America chamber of shared interests for the area, and the understandings that come from those?  Or, will he hold that 38% tariff line on Guyana, and bend this country to his will?  I predict that it will be a little bit of both.  How I see it, call it.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper.)   

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