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Israel – a state of war
Kaieteur News – The hope is that the volatile sea that is the Palestine area calms down quickly. The potential for a descent into a full conflagration is ever-present, an always too short and swift step that is within reach in the Israeli-Palestinian tragedy. Already, Israel’s Prime Minister has sounded the alarm following the rocket bombardment, loss of life, destruction, and hostages taken. Benjamin Netanyahu’s alarm is an ominous one: this is a state of war.
There will be all manner of interpretations, connections, and conclusions inside of Israel, given the sophistication and broad-based coordination of the surprise attack. There are shades of the 1973 Yom Kippur (October 6) War, and what has followed in the Middle East since. Now, in October 2023, with the world angry and edgy, given Ukraine, Saudi Arabia’s new realignment and axis of interest, there is the high risk of the Israeli-Hamas (Palestinian) crisis descending into a catastrophe. The memories are too long and bitter, the reciprocal punishments inflicted too savaging, and the old codes of masculine virility and historical vengeance too prevalent, ever close to the simmering surface.
It is a congested space, with too many closed minds. The concern is that this has all the worrying elements of what may not limit itself to the present adversaries now locked in remorseless battle. In the narrow range of thinking, the deep reservoirs of lethal prejudices, it is inevitable that the weaponry, the machinery, and the strategy of Hamas, Israel’s invaders and despoilers, are all going to be traced to other places in the region. The sworn enemy of Israel, Iran, could be identified as being behind this ultimate provocation. In a relationship where anger, enmity, and animosity are a well-travelled two-way street, there is danger on a scale beyond the confines of combatants and the geographical area. The potential for matters to take a deadly turn, a life of its own, is very imminent, one not to be discounted.
To compound an already complex situation, Iran is now linked to Russia and Vladimir Putin, who has his own register of enemies, those who thwart his dreams of a resurgent Russia. Matters could really get out of hand, with lines drawn and sides taken, and what started out as Palestinians rights and sufferings getting lost in the fallouts from bigger events. Those who have been patiently waiting, absorbing one blow and insult after another, may be itching to unleash pent-up pressures. The confluence of developments and circumstances could not have been unhealthier, more unnerving.
It so happens that Guyana is now an oil producer of note. Whenever there is a development in the Middle East, especially in the always roiling Israeli-Palestinian-Gaza sector, the eyes of the world turn to oil, and remain fixed there. Tensions mean tightening supplies, and already tight supplies can result in prices rocketing through the roof. A barrage of thousands of rockets gives the spark to oil prices rocketing upwards. One mention of the word blockade and all bets are off, relative to oil prices, inflation’s deep bites, and economic stresses and dislocations.
All things equal, the take into Guyana’s Oil Fund would be on the plus side. But there is the specter of the downside, which is a steep rise in prices for just about everything that Guyanese consume, or have some urgent use for in one way or the other. The rank and file in Guyana are already forced to claw their way by their nails to keep going daily. There has been a gargantuan struggle with prices, a losing one for Guyanese left out of their oil patrimony. Higher prices would sweep ordinary Guyanese off their feet, and it would be as if the conflict that is sure to rage and intensify in the Middle East was happening right here, as if that war was being waged right here.
The United States has a major role to play, and it has to be one that projects a balanced expression of its power. Caution must be exercised so that overreaction does not become the order of the day. The world is now walking a very fine line. Though a world away geographically, the impact economically could be the woes dealt with here.
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