Guyana is facing a triple-whammy

Apr 15, 2020 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

The Cliff Anderson Sports Hall paints a chilling picture. It has been converted into a facility to house COVID-19 patients. Beds and gurneys are lined up next to each other on the Hall’s spacious floor, previous used as a basketball court. No doubt this has been done in expectation of a massive increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 virus cases who would have to be isolated.
In a matter of two weeks, the number of confirmed cases of the virus has more than doubled. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increased from 19 on March 31 to 47 as of yesterday.
This increase took place in an environment of low-testing. For those who do not understand the significance of the increase, it means that the situation is extremely serious. We have doubled the number of confirmed cases in eight days.
No one should look forward to spending time at the Sports Hall. People should therefore do all within their powers to avoid being infected. There is an unofficial cure for this virus. It is called, “stay at home.”
Guyana is presently on a partial lockdown. The lockdown is now in its second week and is expected to go on for another two weeks, at least. The experience of countries such as Spain and Italy indicate that it takes at least six weeks for the virus to peak during lockdowns. So it is hoped that the public authorities would not be relaxing the restrictions at least for the next four to five weeks.
After this period, an assessment can be made of the situation, and decisions taken as to what needs to be done. Right now, containing the local spread of the virus should be the number one priority of the administration.
The government’s strategy is predictable. One only has to look at CNN to know what next the government will do. When the US started to promote the use of masks, Guyana did the same.
Local groups, political parties, religious organizations and individuals have been doing a commendable job in providing masks for citizens. It is estimated that over the past week, local volunteers have produced and distributed more than 20,000 masks.
The government is importing 30,000 masks from China. These masks could have been produced locally. The government could have used this to provide a stimulus to encourage housewives to produce home-made masks and to earn income. It is one of the many missed opportunities of a government which probably realizes that regardless of the rhetoric, its days in office are numbered.
The same mistake should not be made with the economy. The economic fallout from the virus will be severe.
The government should be using this period to determine just how it will be getting the economy revived. The economy was already showing signs of chronic illness before the virus hit. It is now, with the lockdown, likely to be in distress.
Tax relief is not the answer. Strangely, tax relief measures are being announced by the Guyana Revenue Authority, which has no legal authority to reduce any taxes. There has to be a more comprehensive strategy to deal with the fallout from the virus. Planning, unfortunately, has never been the strong point of any of our governments
The decline in oil prices means that Guyana will not earn the sums it was expected to earn. The World Bank has already begun to downgrade Guyana’s growth projects, and substantially.
Low oil prices for the rest of the year will create severe difficulties for the economy. And even after the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) and Russia agreed to reduce output, prices remain low. It is a sign of a loss of investor confidence. This will further hurt Guyana.
Guyana therefore faces a triple-whammy. It is on lockdown, which means people’s lives are affected and production is stagnated; it is facing a health crisis and it is heading into a deep economic crisis. When it rains, it pours.
The government-in-waiting will need all the help it can get. It will need the best brains it can get. It will need someone in the economic front seat who has experience in dealing with crisis management, especially those caused by an economic crisis.
The future looks bleak. But not as bleak as having to take your last breath on a gurney at the Cliff Anderson Sports Hall, all alone and without family or anyone to hold your hand.

(The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of this newspaper)

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