The kind of “serious consequences” Guyana could face

Mar 21, 2020 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,

With regards to your editorial (March 20), news reports and letter commentaries (March 18, 19) with reference to the language used by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the Secretary unambiguously stated that serious consequences would follow if an illegitimate government were formed from fraudulent election results.
I studied and taught US Foreign Policy and International Relations, the subject that analyses diplomatic language. The Secretary generally speaks for the President. Serious consequences could mean a variety of actions, with the common one being sanctions. Sanctions are generally implemented as a punishment to force cooperation with law or hold free and fair elections. Sanctions were applied on countries that did not hold free and fair elections. Sanctions were and still are applied on Zimbabwe for electoral fraud. Sanctions are usually not unilateral (USA alone) but multilateral (several countries and regional organisations).
In the case of Guyana, one would expect that the UK, Canada, Europe, would follow the US lead, since all these countries condemned the fraudulent SOPs count.
Going by past precedents and warnings when language of ‘serious consequences’ was uttered by American officials against other countries, it could mean various forms of sanctions against an illegitimate government and individuals associated with it, including those who perpetrated the fraud and their family members (relatives, parents, children, grandchildren, grand children, etc.), Chairs and CEOs of government agencies, corporations, etc. Police and army officials would not be spared, since they would be viewed as propping up an illegitimate regime.
Consequences could also mean military intervention as happened so often in the Caribbean and Americas when elections were fraudulent or people’s rights violated.
It will be a real tragedy if the US were to impose serious consequences on Guyana; everyone would be affected. The country cannot bear the consequences – and all of these actions because a few individuals conspired to prevent a real count of SOPs that followed the elections.
Sanctions could be political (including diplomatic) and/or economic (no loans and foreign aid). In past US actions, sanctions included banning a country from diplomatic engagements with other countries (states) and from participation in multilateral or regional organizations and agencies (including banking institutions).
It included imposition of economic sanctions (on trade, travel) as well as cultural and military restrictions. The proceeds of sales of goods were kept in an escrow, un-accessible to the illegitimate government. All foreign accounts and assets held by the country were frozen; no money could be spent.
Remittances (sending money to loved ones) were ordered curtailed, except for humanitarian purposes (for medicine and purchase of food). The country had virtually no foreign exchange. It could not purchase goods on credit only cash sales were allowed. The government proceeded to confiscate banks’ foreign currency and those in possession of people in order to purchase goods. Failing that move, purchase of foreign goods was banned to save currency; the country ate only local foods that were in shortage.
Consequences meant agreements were suspended on various exchanges and on scholarships. Ongoing scholarships were suspended and students ordered returned to the home country. Sporting contacts were suspended; athletes were not allowed to partake in sports outside of the country; they could not make money from their talent. Sales of military equipment were forbidden. Diplomatic missions were ordered closed; ambassadors expelled or ordered to leave (an extreme measure).
Once the US pursues sanction against a state, other countries generally fall in line. In the case of Guyana, Norway has already suspended foreign aid relating to the climate agreement. And if there were US military or regional (OAS) military intervention, the security forces would be crushed. Many innocent lives would be lost – and what for? Because of the actions of a few selfish people!
If an illegitimate government is formed, punitive sanctions are coming; they will bite hard. Is this what the government wants? It is best that the government and GECOM do the right thing to correct the mistakes they made relating to the elections count. Allow a fair count and declaration of the winner.
Yours truly,
Dr. Vishnu Bisram (Specialist International Relations)

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