The electricity problem is one of simple addition and subtraction

Oct 30, 2019 Features / Columnists, Peeping Tom

Guyana’s electricity is erratic because there is a mismatch between demand and supply. The situation is compounded when a number of generating units, somehow end up either being down or being serviced at the same time.
The result is a shortage of power. With more power being used than what is being produced blackouts are inevitable.
Another cause of power failures arise from mechanical breakdowns and line faults, including disruptions to the submarine cables. People do not make a fuss when power outages occur as a result of these unforeseen and unpredictable incidents.
What really annoys people, however, are lengthy power outages which occur when there is a generation shortfall. And in recent times, Guyanese have been suffering because of shortfalls which have arisen because of the lack of spare capacity during times of maintenance.
In more than four years, the APNU+AFC has failed to come up with an energy plan to satisfy the basic need for a reliable source of energy. If they failed at this most fundamental level, then it would be asking too much to have expected them to have done anything about reducing energy costs – the main bugbear which is faced by the business community.
It is being reported that apart from large quantities of oil, Exxon Mobil is encountering massive reserves of natural gas in off-shore Guyana’s waters. Guyana has been robbed high and dry by Exxon in relation to the signing bonus. Is it asking too much for that company to have offered to build a facility to generate electricity from natural gas which would have been obtained in sufficient quantities to solve Guyana’s energy problems?
If that was done, all the scandals which are now being alleged about the renewable energy projects in Guyana, could have been avoided. It would not have cost Exxon a fortune to make that investment.
But why should Exxon do this when they got away with paying Guyana a paltry US$18 as a signing bonus for some of the largest new discoveries in the world? Exxon got what it wanted; Guyana got shafted and therefore it is not likely even at this stage, a gesture of remorse for what it did, that Exxon will pledge to build a plant to generate energy from gas.
What short of economic foresight would have allowed for a signing bonus to be negotiated and devoted to the paying of legal fees when the country faces an energy crisis? Energy costs are too high, electricity supply is fluctuating – there have been a number of fires recently in which it is alleged are linked to the erratic supply of electricity –and breakdowns in the system have become too regular.
The absence of an energy plan is not being helped by the bull- in- a-teashop attitude which the government undertook when it assumed office in May 2015. The government came in with preconceptions about those who had worked for years in the system. They were not prepared to give them a chance. They upturned ministries and state corporations, firing or forcing experienced and skilled persons to leave. They put in their place persons who, in most instances, have been overwhelmed by the task before them. Many of the newbies cannot function effectively. And those who could have been forced to leave.
Arrangements have been entered into, within the electricity sector that have not provided value for money. In fact, in one instance the dividend which the government received has been paltry, to say the least. Ironically, the better performing parts of the government have been those in which there have been few sweeping changes. You cannot in a small economy go on vendetta against experienced and competent workers simply because they happened to have worked under the previous administration.
The energy sector has underperformed. The problems of electricity have gotten worse. Christmas in around the corner and there is usually a spike in demand. One can only hope that no more maintenance of generating units are due this year because if that is the case, Guyanese will have to brace themselves for even more blackouts.
The electricity problem is a simple one of addition and subtraction. It is about calculating the demand and estimate the supply and seeing which is greater.
Math has been a problem for this administration. But the least it can do is to get a pen a paper and calculate the peak demand which is expected for Christmas and then decide whether the generating capacity exists to meet this demand.

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