From the Diaspora…IS THE PPP REALLY PANICKING?

Nov 20, 2011 News

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By Ralph Seeram

Some eight months ago I wrote an article about the possibility of the PPP losing the elections. Then, many people felt that I was crazy, that there was no way the PPP was going  to lose, as a mater of fact it was a foregone conclusion that the PPP will be reelected.
From the e-mail I received then, one would have thought that the PPP had already won a new five-year term; that was just eight months ago. Fast forward to the elections campaign for the past week, the predictions and pronouncements have dramatically changed.
The opposition parties are “smelling blood” they feel the PPP is very vulnerable this election, and feel for the first time they can defeat the PPP. One opposition spokesperson even went as far to say the only way the PPP can retain power is to rig the election. With an open elections and the presence of international observers I doubt very much that possibility.
Could this be interpreted that the opposition, in this case PNC/APNU is setting up itself an excuse should it be defeated at the polls? No one is predicting that PNC/APNU or the AFC will win the Presidency or 50% of the cast votes;, only that the PPP may not obtain the necessary fifty percent votes.
My “eyes and ears” on the ground are telling me that the PPP is not pulling the kind of crowds it used to, and I think most of the opposition forces are basing their assessment on this fact. Question is, is that a reliable position to make a prediction?
If I were the opposition I would not write the PPP epitaph as yet. The PPP has been drawing the largest crowds at its rallies, even in opposition strongholds, despite opposition claims of “busing”. By the way, what is wrong with “busing” supporters? Nobody is stopping the opposition from busing its supporters. In fact the PNC/APNU should know a “thing or two” about busing. It was experienced in that area during the PNC reign. The PNC used to bus its supporters from polling booth to polling booth to vote multiple times. That is a fact that I can attest to. I was there. So the PNC should be the last party to talk about busing and rigging elections.
The opposition would do well not to under estimate the PPP support. Guyana is a much better place than is was under the PNC. This is unquestionable, and most of the voters know this. The Guyanese economy is booming while those of its Caricom partners are faltering.
The PPP, in my opinion, made a mistake in strategy in not focusing on its record, despite the charges of corruption (and that to me is the PPP Achilles heel”). The PPP never the less has a good record to run on.
Next week’s elections are much different from previous elections. There are so many factors that have to be considered that can determine the winner. I think I was the first writer to draw attention to the fact that the elections will have a new generation of voters that grew up under the PPP.
I doubt very much if race will be a factor in their decisions. This group is the unknown factor. Young people tend to stay away from the polls, and will this hurt or help the PPP? My friend Wesley drew my attention to another factor, the “dougla” factor. There is a very large percentage of voters who are of mixed race. There will be no racial voting in this group, and so what will influence their votes?
These two groups are what will decide who wins the overall elections. This is where the PPP record comes in. If they are happy with Donald Ramotar and the PPP record of progress, then the PPP can be assured of another five years in office.
To what extent is voter’s apathy? This is another factor that could hurt the PPP or PNC/APNU. The PPP realize that any low turn out from their supporters could seriously affect them, that’s why the see President Jagdeo exhorting his supporters to turn out. Navin Chandarpal and Komal Chand are back in the fold on the campaign trail to ensure that traditional PPP supporters from the sugar belt turn up at the polls. The PPP headache is for their supporters to turn out.
The PNC/APNU has the same problem. The PNC saw its voters drop from 165,000 in the 2001 elections to 114,000 in the 2006 elections; the AFC took about 28,000 votes in 2006, most of those at the expense of the PNC.
The AFC seemed to concede that the PNC/APNU will recapture some of it voters. That party is concentrating on cutting into the PPP support. It is banking on Moses Nagamootoo. I think it will be disappointed. Guyanese voters have been trained to vote for Political Parties and not individuals. But even if Nagamootoo draws a few thousand votes I doubt if that will hurt the PPP.
So it’s on to the homestretch, with a week to go. Come next week we will see not what the various writers think but what the voter wants. Next week I will tell you who I am voting for.
Ralph Seeram can be reached at email: ralph365@hotmail.com

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