The opposition has the edge in St. Vincent’s elections

Dec 13, 2010 Letters

Dear Editor,
St. Vincent and the Grenadines goes to the polls today (December 13) to choose a new government. Opinion polls financed by the ruling United Labour Party (ULP) say the incumbent will win the elections handing Prime Minister Ralph Gonsavles a third term, while opposition financed polls say the opposition will win. Conversations with objective analysts and some voters say the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) will coast to victory, propelling Opposition Leader Arnhim Eustace as PM.
The general feeling among voters is Gonsalves is unpopular and it will take a miracle for him to survive this election, because too many voters are against him. Eustace enjoys more credibility and respect according to the few people I spoke with.
Gonsalves lost a referenda last year 56%-43%. In the 2005 elections, he won 53% of the votes and 12 of the 15 seats. The reversal of fortunes had to do with his arrogance and his determination to railroad a change to the constitution.
He said the issues surrounding the referendum have nothing to do with this year’s general elections.
I disagree! Voters rejected the changes he proposed because they distrust him and are likely to reject him again once the elections are free and fair. Voters have lost confidence in Gonsalves, viewing him as arrogant and not listening to them, although he does enjoy the advantages of incumbency.
But it does not mean he will necessarily lose because of the kind of strategic campaign he is waging.
Gonsalves is mounting a strong campaign with the huge amounts of cash at his disposal, using it strategically to lure voters to capture a majority of seats. Opponents charge Gonsalves is getting funding from Venezuela, China and Iran and that he is bringing in voters from overseas to bolster support in selected constituencies to eke out a narrow majority. It will take a significant amount of padding for him to pull it off.
Some 44 candidates have filed nominations for the 15 seats. The opinion polls are not unanimous in their prediction. CADRES pollster Peter Wickham, who conducted a poll earlier this year in Guyana, said his polls show Gonsalves winning a reduced majority. An English group said their polls show the NDP winning a large majority.
A snapshot of a few people I spoke with (by no means scientific) gives the edge to Eustace. But the unknown factor is the number of foreign voters being ferried and flown in. If there are sufficient numbers of them and they vote strategically, Gonsalves will survive. Otherwise, he will be canned as voters go for change.
Vishnu Bisram

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