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Close electoral contest expected in Dominica
Dear Editor,
Our CARICOM sister state Dominica goes to the polls today (18-12-09) to choose a government to administer the island republic for another five years.
The contest is between the two dominant parties – ruling DLP and opposition UWP. An independent could have an outside chance for a seat. Opinion surveys give the incumbent DLP led by Roosevelt Skerrit the advantage to win a third consecutive term. However, celebrated journalist Rickey Singh reported that there is much debate over expenditure and sources of funding. The opposition has been criticising the ruling party for its huge campaign budget that the opposition cannot match.
The opposition cannot be discounted altogether and has an outside chance to pull off an upset especially if the “third party” (Freedom of the late Prime Minister Eugenia Charles) supporters, swing towards the opposition. In such an event, the UWP can edge out the DLP in a close fight. However, such a scenario is extremely unlikely.
The DLP goes into the elections with 12 seats as against 8 for the UWP and one for an independent candidate. The independent, who was very popular in 2005, will have a difficult time to retain his seat.
A CADRES poll conducted in August had the DLP retaining its 12 seats. Its follow up poll earlier this month, according to sources, shows the DLP down by a seat. Skerrit is still popular among voters and it will not be surprising if he retains office.
A party needs 11 seats to win office. Of the 21 seats up for grabs, there are six marginal seats that could swing either way. Both parties have about six “safe” seats. So the six marginal seats will decide the outcome of the elections. Opposition Leader Ron Green said that he “remains optimistic based on his party’s assessments in some of the marginal constituencies”.
As Rickey Singh reported, big foreign money is financing the two major parties. China is backing the incumbent, while Taiwan is backing the opposition. There are also complaints that voters from the Diaspora including Canada, US and England and neighbouring islands are coming home to vote in the marginal constituencies.
Vishnu Bisram
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