The U.S. presidential contest will be closer than the polls are suggesting

Oct 30, 2008 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,
As the American Presidential contest winds down, political pundits are saying and opinion polls are showing that the race is all but over for the republican John McCain.

Democrat Barack Obama is way ahead in virtually all of the polls and it will take a miracle for McCain to make a come back with just a few days remaining in the campaign.

All the national polls, which predict a winner, are showing Obama with huge leads with only two polls (Associated Press and IBD) showing the contest a dead heat in popular support.

There have been more than 250 polls conducted in October on the contest by different polling outfits and Obama has been in the lead in all of them.

Last Monday had 37 polls and on Tuesday another dozen were published, which show some narrowing of the lead between the two candidates but it may be too late for McCain because nearly a third of the voters have already cast their votes and exit polls show Obama ahead two to one.

Historians have pointed out that whoever has been in the lead the longest between the conventions and the election date goes on to win the Presidency. This suggests that Obama will be elected President.

The polls indicate that the margin of support between Obama and McCain varies up to 14%, with one poll showing 13%, another 12%, another 10%, another 9%, etc., etc.

The polls have shown all kinds of numbers and it is difficult to tell which one is accurate. I have not conducted any polls except some informal interviewing of voters in a few states.

But I have been conducting my own assessment of the contest using past turnout rates and other factors to determine a winner.

It is going Obama’s way but I do not completely rule out a McCain miracle. Obama is ahead in all the battleground states.

And Obama is also picking up steam in states that were not considered close in recent weeks giving him a real shot of picking them up such as Georgia and Mississippi. But I believe that is a long shot and I give those states to McCain.

Based on my assessment, I do not think Obama will win all of the marginal states which polls show him ahead and the ones now showing close according to polls. I believe the contests will be closer than the polls are suggesting.

Polls show Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by 11%, Virginia by 8%, Wisconsin by 14%, Montana by 4%, Indiana by 10%, New Hampshire by 10%, Colorado by 12%, New Mexico by 9%, etc.

I think these will be closer. Nevertheless, Obama has enough a lead in electoral votes in most of the states to win the presidency.

Any pollster looking at the numbers from the polls will recognise something is wrong. Some of these poll numbers are not in sync with political reality.

It is not possible to do an assessment of the hundreds of polls because pollsters do not tell readers how their polls were conducted and the breakdown of the different groups of people they interviewed.

Thus, one cannot really evaluate how good or bad they are. Some of these polls will not be borne out by actual election results. For example, one poll says North Dakota is a tie.

I think McCain will prevail. Another poll says Obama will win Indiana big. I think it will be a narrow victory for either candidate with the edge to McCain. I do not think Obama will win Virginia by 8%; it will be a closer contest.

I do not think the race is a dead heat right now as two polls found. At the same time, I do not think there is a 14% margin in support separating the two candidates.

I believe right now, Obama is leading comfortably and is on top in terms of electoral votes. All he needs to do is to let the clock run out because he is riding high.
Vishnu Bisram

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