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El Nino Warning
(Kaieteur News) – The latest warning from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) should cause Guyana to take a much harder look at its preparedness for what could become an exceptionally strong El Niño event.
ECLAC is projecting in a report released on Tuesday potentially serious economic consequences across the region, including slower economic growth, higher food prices, pressure on electricity systems and rising poverty. Under an extreme El Niño scenario, the Commission estimates that the region could suffer cumulative losses of at least two per cent of GDP over three years, with half of that loss occurring in the first year.
Even more troubling is the projection that declining household incomes could push as many as 4.8 million additional people into poverty by the end of the decade compared with a scenario without El Niño. The warning is particularly significant because the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is giving more than a 90 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. ECLAC has also cited a 69 per cent probability of an event reaching what it describes as historic “Super El Niño” magnitude.
These projections deserve serious attention, especially given Guyana’s existing vulnerabilities. Electricity is one area where the potential consequences cannot be ignored. Higher temperatures can increase demand for cooling at the same time that changing rainfall patterns and water shortages can put pressure on electricity generation. Guyanese consumers have already endured their share of blackouts and electricity reliability problems. The possibility of a prolonged period of extreme heat and altered water availability should therefore be incorporated into energy planning now, rather than after the system comes under additional strain.
Food security presents an equally serious concern. The Government has moved to reassure farmers that it is preparing for the possibility of prolonged dry conditions. Agriculture Minister Zulfikar Mustapha had told farmers recently at an El Niño Preparedness Forum that the Government’s message is not to panic but to prepare. But preparation must mean more than assurances. The minister had pointed to investments in canals, pumps, sluices and water-storage systems, while the National Drainage and Irrigation Authority is monitoring conservancies and irrigation systems and identifying areas that could face water shortages. Those measures are important. The real test, however, will be whether the infrastructure is functioning effectively when farmers actually need water.
Guyana’s agricultural ambitions make this particularly important. The country is seeking to expand agriculture as part of economic diversification and food-security efforts. A severe and prolonged dry period could undermine those objectives if farmers cannot reliably access water. ECLAC’s warning should consequently be used as an opportunity to test the country’s preparedness from farm to market.
Are irrigation systems adequately supplied? Are pumps operational? Are sufficient water reserves available? Can vulnerable farmers obtain timely assistance? Are food-import requirements being assessed in advance? And what measures are in place to prevent climate-related shortages from translating into sharp increases in the cost of food?
ECLAC is also calling for a broader shift from reacting to disasters after losses occur to anticipating and managing climate risks beforehand. That approach should resonate strongly in Guyana.
The country has the financial resources today to prepare in ways that were not previously possible. The challenge is ensuring that preparation is strategic, coordinated and reaches the communities most exposed to the effects of prolonged heat and water shortages. El Niño may be a natural climate phenomenon, but its economic and social consequences are not inevitable. The extent of the damage will depend, in part, on how seriously governments prepare. Guyana should therefore heed ECLAC’s warning—not with panic, but with urgency.
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