Putting eggs in one basket

Nov 30, 2025 Editorial, News

(Kaieteur News) – The news for Guyana from the Economic Commission from Latin American and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is both good and bad. The good news is that, as expected, Guyana is at the top of the region’s export performers rankings for 2025. It is not often that Guyana beats out 33 competing countries in the region for that honor, with an export performance rating of 38, which edged Panama at a 36 rating, and lapped the third placed performer Honduras that was assessed with a 25 rating. Unsurprisingly, Guyana soaring daily oil output has helped it race to the head of the regional export pack. Oil is now everything for Guyana, and even the bright numbers cannot obscure what lurks underneath the good news.

Guyana is too dependent on one commodity, oil. Guyana’s exports and its ECLAC champion export performance ranking are overwhelming driven by oil. When a country’s dependency is so pronounced that creates its own vulnerabilities, an unhealthy situation. The history of oil has demonstrated that it doesn’t chart one course, and stick to it. Oil prices can be very volatile, with long intervals of high prices, and also long periods of low and lower prices. At the bottom end, oil has wreaked havoc on countries that were tied almost exclusively to oil exports and oil prices staying high. The economies of those countries fell off a cliff, leading to their citizens, mostly the poorer ones, feeling the brunt of the pressures. The PPPC Government is happy to celebrate how diversified Guyana’s economy is, but we ask where is that diversification, and how string is it?

Gold prices have rocketed upward, but declarations at the Gold Board have not been at levels, where advantage can be taken of record-breaking prices. Canadian mining companies have announced projections of millions of ounces of gold in future years, but Guyana’s share of those partnerships would not be enough to help this country through either a steep drop, or a prolonged slump, in oil prices. Oil prices are coming under supply pressures, and the impact to this country could be severe. Debt servicing could become onerous, especially if Guyana’s nonoil sectors, such as manufacturing, are hit by falling oil prices. How can they not be, when so much is linked in some way to oil? When too much risk is taken without too much thought, this is usually part of the consequences. Whether at the individual or a national level, putting all of one’s eggs in one basket is a recipe for danger. Hard experience has taught that it either the eggs crack, or the basket cannot hold the strain after too long.

The ECLAC report had another piece of good news adjacent to bad news. Guyana’s exports to the US stand at 15%, which makes it less dependent on the US market, and provides some breathing space from that superpower’s unpredictable tariff swings. The bad news that ECLAC reported was that Guyana cannot boast of diversified markets for its goods, and that strong bilateral trading relationships are not where they should be. There has been a flurry of loans and deals signed since the discovery of oil made Guyana into a global name. Those seem to lack the punch that binds two countries together in the types of long-term relationship that works, because they are mutually beneficial. It seems that everyone around the globe that wants a slice of Guyana’s rich promise, and arrange it without committing to too much on their side. Guyana’s leaders fool themselves into believing that it is their skills at statecraft and salesmanship that open doors for them, and prompt the world to rush here and invest.

Oil is a game of ruthless predators. Unless the leaders of Guyana manage their responsibilities better, and take sensible precautions to protect this country, the dark side of this precious commodity can be a frightening environment in which to live. Warnings on how to better manage different aspects of the nation’s oil wealth have come from high-profile international bodies, such as the IMF and Commonwealth, with ECLAC now adding its voice. The Guyana Government hasn’t shown itself to be a good listener, and national pain usually results from such tone deafness.

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