Who will win UK PM Position?

Sep 04, 2022 Letters

Dear Editor,

Balloting for the leadership position of the Conservative Party, and by extension the Prime Ministerial position, closed on Tuesday. Counting of ballots will commence. The party has some 200,000 members all of who are eligible to vote. Turnout is expected to be very high to choose between Liz Truss, an Anglo Saxon British and Rishi Sunak, an Indian born Briton of East African parents who were expelled from Africa. It is not known how many Guyanese and Caribbean nationalities are members of the Conservative Party. Guyanese I spoke with in the UK say they favor Sunak, but they are not party members and as such can’t vote.

Who is likely to win the contest? Polls have consistently predicted that Liz Truss will win by a landslide. She had trailed Sunak in three earlier rounding of voting that narrowed the down the contest between the top two contenders. It would take a major upset and a miracle for Sunak to close the gap. He may narrow the gap from almost two to one to a closer contest but hardly likely to win. Ethnicity influences voting in UK as it does almost in every country. Many White voters told researchers that they can’t support Sunak. They do not consider him British because he is not White. A majority of those polled who will vote in general elections say they prefer Sunak over Truss as PM. In a general election, polls show Truss going down to defeat to the Opposition Labor Party. Sunak has a better chance of defeating Labor at the next elections.

Research into the voting members suggests that 44% of the membership 97% of the membership is white and 44% are over 65 years of age. Older voters lean towards Liz Truss, making it almost impossible for Sunak to win. The winner will be announced on Monday. Boris Johnson will resign on Tuesday, and the new Prime Minister sworn in right after. Johnson is not backing Sunak whose resignation as Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) and criticism of Johnson’s indiscretions led to the PM’s fall from grace and his eventual resignation. Johnson has not forgiven Sunak for not sticking to him.

Truss, the Foreign Secretary, remained with Johnson. If she prevails, she is likely to offer the Exchequer position to Sunak, who in all likelihood will decline. Cabinet members who backed Truss, including South Asians, are likely to return to the cabinet.

Yours truly,

Vishnu Bisram

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