Diversify or be devastated or die

Jun 12, 2020 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,

There have been 14 global recessions since 1870: in 1870, 1876, 1885, 1893, 1908, 1914, 1917-21, 1930-32, 1938, 1945-46, 1975, 1982, 1991, 2009, and 2020. This present global recession will be served. The share of economies in recession will be more than 90% compared to 85% in the Great Depression of 1930-32 according to a recent World Bank report. What is troubling is a decline in global per capita income by 6.2%, which is unprecedented. This means millions will be push into extreme poverty globally and thousands locally.
Tourism is an industry that depends on disposable income but since all the countries that travel to the Caribbean will be in a recession indefinitely, traveling will diminish significantly. Coupled with the Covid-19 additional restrictions traveling will become less pleasant. Oil price will be moderate for at least a year. This means Guyana has to diversify – agriculture, agro- processing, import substitutions and international consulting. This will mean investing in agriculture, negotiating with importers who are usually campaign contributors. This will be politically difficult but is necessary. Investing in developing our human capital can offer services such as educational service, legal services, and medical services virtually. This will become more popular due to more people working from home using the internet. Companies will want to expand this trend because it’s cheaper and increase their profit. The Caribbean and Guyana can benefit from this global trend.
The world will change due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Guyana needs to adapt to the new reality.

Yours truly,
Brian Ellis Plummer

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