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PPP wins recount
The opposition People’s Progressive Party yesterday held a statistically unbreakable lead at close of recount yesterday, staying ahead of the Coalition incumbent by some 13,069 votes with just 14 boxes left to be tabulated. This effectively gives the PPP a win in the recount of votes and, implicitly, the 2020 General Elections.
Graph showing comparison between the first two declarations, a total based on the PPP figures, and the current count as of yesterday’s tabulation.
The close of day tabulation showed the PPP with a total of 230,328 votes while the APNU+AFC had 217,529 votes. Taking into account the total valid number of votes, 475589, recorded as cast in the previous declarations, the total tabulated votes so far, 456628, leaves around probably 18961 votes left to be counted.
For the coalition to catch up the PPP, it would have to win over two-thirds and even then the remainder, presuming the PPP and the other parties won zero votes, would not be enough to assure it an extra seat in the national assembly.
GECOM has so far had two previous tabulations. The first, declared on March 5, showed the PPP gaining a total of 229,581 votes and the APNU+AFC 237,391 votes, a clear coalition win. However, this was nullified when the Chief Justice ruled that Region Four Returning Officer, Clairmont Mingo had not adhered to the law when he tabulated the votes from that region.
Despite the Chief Justices’ orders, Mingo would go on to repeat his tabulation on March 15 in a process that did not clearly show how he got numbers indicating roughly the same figures from the first declaration, which amounted to a total score of 236,990 for the coalition and 229,483 for the PPP. Mingo’s declarations led to threats of sanction from the international community, leading incumbent President David Granger to invite a CARICOM team to oversee a recount. However, before the recount could start, a candidate on Granger’s list, Ullita Moore, represented by another Granger candidate, Roysdale Forde, had unsuccessfully challenged that on the grounds that it was ‘illegal’.
After a protracted court battle that saw the departure of the CARICOM recount observer team, as well as other observer missions, Moore lost both the case and a subsequent appeal, clearing the way for the recount that started on May 6. Originally slated for 25 days, the order was extended until June 16.
Yesterday, the last ballot boxes, all from Region Four, were removed from GECOM storage containers – while all boxes have been counted, some fourteen boxes are left to be tabulated. While this paper’s estimation is that there are 18961 votes left in those boxes, the figure is very likely lower considering that – as we have reported – Mingo, during his tabulation, significantly inflated the Coalition numbers. This means that, even though he also deflated the PPP numbers to some degree, the total valid number of votes would likely have been inflated.
Indeed, while the PPP’s projections, based on their SOPs, showed a total of 457201 valid votes cast, the current recount total of 456628 is just several hundred votes short of that figure. If we are to take into account, as reported, that 29 boxes amounted to almost 7,000 votes, the outstanding 14 boxes should average around 3500 votes. In this scenario, were the Coalition to win all outstanding votes, the PPP would also be in a 10,000-vote lead.
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