Cold competition and COVID-19 Crisis

Apr 06, 2020 Letters

DEAR EDITOR,
On April 4, 2020 oil is at US $28.34 a barrel. Oil has been less than US$30 and as low as US$20 for about a month now. The Russian refused to cut production and then Saudi Arabia said they will sell, in April 12.3 million barrel a day, more than their production capacity which mean they will use their reserve. US president Donald Trump has tried to negotiate a truce but both Saudi Arabia and Russia want the US to cut production also.
US Oil Companies are heavily indebted and need oil to be at least US$50 a barrel. Both Saudi Arabia and Russia need far less than US$50 a barrel to make a profit. Even during the COVID-19 pandemics nations are still in cold competition.
I surmised that the COVID- 19 crisis is a global changing event equivalent to a world war. I predict the United States will be devastated by the COVID Crisis and will therefore be weakened as the global hegemon.
The US has 306,997 cases and 8,350 deaths. China has 81,639 cases and 3,326 deaths. Iran 55,743 cases and 3,452 deaths. Saudi Arabia has 2,729 cases and 31 deaths. Russia has 4,731 cases and 43 deaths. By far the US is the most affected both in cases and deaths.
Secondly, in two decades the US had three economic crashes that they bailed out the corperations and left the ordinary people to suffer. The 2000 dot com crisis, the 2008 Great Recession and the COVID Crisis of 2020. This shows instability and will lead to class conflict. This is how Donald Trump got elected by tapping into that working class discontent, although he wrongfully blamed it on immigrants taking their jobs. In two weeks 10 million new people claim unemployment benefits in the US. This is shaping up to be worst than the Great depression when Unemployment in the US was 25%. The US Federal Reserve of St Luis estimates that unemployment will be 32.1% in the US.
Because the US dollar is the world reserve currency, its value will rise for a short time but will eventually fall like in 2008 but it bounce back will be uncertain. If China bailout the world like in 2008 (bailout the US) it will rise but if it continues its competition with China, it will have major negative effect on its critical economy.
The other competitors for global hegemony will be less effected by the COVID Crisis and therefore recovery will be much swifter than the US.
Guyana is managing the COVID Crisis okay with 24 cases and 4 deaths but must pay attention to this tipping point caused by the COVID Crisis. Protectionism, nationalism and government surveillance or control of its citizenry will likely increase globally and locally.

Yours truly,
Brian E Plummer

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