I applaud APNU+AFC for polling

Jul 07, 2019 Letters

Dear Editor,

I applaud the ruling coalition APNU+AFC for commissioning or conducting (its own) opinion polls to determine its popular support and favorability or likeability ratings of its President and Prime Minister and prospective candidates or nominees. Polling is a standard practice in all countries that allow democratic elections. All political parties should conduct opinion polls. The media should also conduct its own polls to determine support for parties.
I am almost certain, barring any medical difficulty, President David Granger will return as the coalition’s Presidential candidate. The opposition PPP and the minor parties, ANUG (Ralph Ramkarran and others), Justice and Liberal Party (Shuman and others), URP (Vishnu Bandhu and others) and the other small parties should follow the APNU+AFC’s lead and commission or conduct polls to test their popular support and the favorability ratings of their potential nominees or candidates for President and prime Minister.
An election is a numbers game. When I did doctoral studies in political science, I learn and master that as a basic. The goal is to cross over 50% support that guarantees a majority of seats in parliament or a plurality to win the Presidency. You need data to know where you are in terms of popular support. You get data by conducting scientific objective polls. APNU+AFC has data where it is in terms of support and how far it has to go (if it in fact needs more movement) to reach its goal. That is smart politics and the ruling alliance must be commended for this initiative. Whoever is advising the coalition knows politics and the number game and is planning how to get the numbers to win the elections.
To not think in terms of numbers is to fool yourself; you will face defeat (as the PPP experienced in 2011 and 2015) if you don’t play the numbers game (examine the numbers or data and strategize on mazimizing your position). The advisor to the coalition knows the importance of numbers and that is why he commissioned polls, and he is now in an advantageous position strategizing on how to take the coalition to victory. I do not know if any of the opposition parties have done the same as the coalition in conducting polls. It is to their detriment if they don’t conduct polls or listen to pollsters; they will experience a repeat of 2011 and 2015.
I think APNU+AFC recognizes the significance of data. And that is why it commissioned polls and such tracking polling will continue till an election is held. The coalition is engaged in smart politics ahead of the game of the other parties. And it has jumped in front by releasing (leaking) numbers to influence opinion. It is in a position now to determine or shape the politics. Had the other parties done the same as the coalition in conducting polls, they would have been in a strategic position to influence the politics. he opposition parties now have to play catch up.
Anyone who studied political science will tell you that in elections, it is either you have the numbers to win or influence government formation (with a few seats) or you don’t. If you lack the numbers, you find a way to build the numbers to win or to get into a position to influence government formation. In Guyana, “winner takes all”. There is no second prize. So if the opposition is smart, it will begin to engage in smart politics – commission polls to get data. The incumbent already has an advantage with data. If data shows a party or coalition lacks the numbers, then you form an alliance (as APNU+AFC did) in 2015 to get into an advantageous position. Otherwise, five more years in opposition. If the APNU+AFC coalition lacks the numbers, and it has the numbers based on its private polling), then it knows what must be done to get the numbers and five more years in office. I happened to have done a poll for my personal interest and have some idea of where the parties are in terms of numbers. There are a lot of surprises. I urge the parties to commission polls (not me as I will not work for a party but will consider a media house) to test their political strength. I extol APNU+AFC for taking the lead in commissioning polls. That is new in Guyana’s politics.
It is not enough to conduct polls; a party must also listen to the pollster. Politicians are not experts. The pollsters are the experts who provide data and the advisors offer strategies on winning. That is how Cheddi Jagan was able to win in 1992 and David Granger/Moses Nagamootoo in 2015..
Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram (PhD Politics)

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