What’s next for the Coalition?

Nov 25, 2018 Features / Columnists, Hinds' Sight with Dr. David Hinds

The responses to the results of the Local Government Elections (LGE) from both sides of the political divide have been most revealing. The PPP, not unexpectedly, claimed victory and proceeded to file a no-confidence motion against the government. For their part, the PNC and AFC have tried to put the best spin on what was a very disappointing performance.
There has been much discussion about the causes of the low voter turnout. My view is that while inadequate voter education and voter apathy may have contributed to some people staying away from the polls, I would be surprised if they were decisive factors. As I opined last week, the actions of the supporters of the governing parties were deliberate. They wanted to make a statement to the government and chose to do so at an election where the stakes were not very high.
The very fact that coalition parties went to the elections separately was a big turn-off for some of their supporters. Whether the outcome of this LGE would carry over to 2020 would be dependent on how the coalition conducts itself in the next eighteen months. If they govern as a real coalition, then they could convince the independent African and Indian Guyanese constituencies to go back to the fold.
From all indications, the message has been heard by some PNC leaders, and they appear to have decided to act. The early message takes the form of a reminder of the dark days of the PPP. While that message would excite some emotions among African Guyanese, it is not a winning tactic. It should be remembered that the government has not been successful in prosecuting PPP members and supporters for the alleged transgressions.
I would not advise vote-buying but urge real policy. If the government pursues real working-class policies aimed at the structural problems that that class faces such as unemployment, poverty and substandard education, they could restore the confidence that their supporters seem to have lost. The coalition parties would also have to ground with their supporters in a real humane way to win back not just votes, but hearts and minds.
As for the AFC, it must face the stark reality of the limited electoral shelf-life of Third Parties in Guyana, and in ethnically fractured societies in general. Contrary to what some may think, the party would continue to be a national player. The very nature of anti-PPP politics will ensure that the AFC exists—none of the coalition parties could individually defeat the PPP.
Contrary to the soundings from the PNC side, I think the Cummingsburg Accord would be renegotiated and the AFC would have to cede some ground. That is inevitable. But the outcome would depend on how politically skillful the PNC’s leadership is – they must balance their sense of bigness with the reality that it is the Coalition that is the route to re-election. My belief is that they would have to make the case that APNU and the Coalition are not myths. I still believe that there is more than one constituency that must be appealed to—PNC supporters, APNU voters and Coalition voters. The latter two constituencies require parties like the AFC and WPA to be on board.
But those two parties would have to convince those voters that they would not be uncritical players in a second Coalition government. They have the remainder of this term to demonstrate that they are up to the task. They must serve as a clear and present check on PNC’s unilateralism and become advocates of progressive policies both in the corridors of power and in wider society. In other words, the non-government sections of the AFC and WPA have to assert themselves as independent actors.

More of Dr. Hinds ‘writings and commentaries can be found on his YouTube Channel Hinds’ Sight: Dr. David Hinds’ Guyana-Caribbean Politics and on his website www.guyanacaribbeanpolitics.news. Send comments to dhinds6106@aol.com

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